Is the AI Trade Over? (Why July Wasn’t a Blowoff Top) | Jeff Keller
Спикеры
Jeff Keller
— Founder and Portfolio Manager, Capelight Partners
Jeff Keller breaks down the Q3 tech divergence, arguing the AI trade is not over and that late June was not a blowoff top. He separates application software from usage-based infrastructure/cyber, explains why lower-multiple AI semis look better than high-multiple hidden AI names, and discusses the changing return profile of mega-cap hyperscalers. He also covers retail crowding, the July deleveraging setup in Korea, data center buildout fears, and the upcoming Anthropic IPO.
- Tech sector divergence since Q3: software up while semiconductors and hardware lag
- Keller sees AI adoption still rising on an S-curve despite July volatility
- Application software is repricing lower while usage-based cyber/infrastructure gets a certainty premium
- CrowdStrike and MongoDB are cited as AI winners tied to near-term usage/security drivers
- Low-multiple AI semis such as Nvidia and Micron look less extrapolated than behind-the-meter/hidden AI names
- Mega-cap/hyperscaler return profile has changed as compute competition expands
- Korean equities became attractive after July margin-call deleveraging
- Anthropic IPO is a key upcoming catalyst for AI narrative clarity and positioning
Идеи
AI adoption uptrend intact; don't short.
AI adoption is still moving up an S-curve; the AI labs can plausibly see double-digit growth for 10-15 years, and Q2/Q3 volatility, heavy retail involvement, and Korea deleveraging are normal along the way. Late June was not a blowoff top and this is not a 2022-style environment, so shorting AI is premature.
Application software remains under pressure.
Application software remains under AI-disruption question; the sector has reset from premium double-digit growth to low or high single-digit growth, making revenue-multiple and non-GAAP stories harder to underwrite. Names like Salesforce and Wix have left-tail risk and are less likely to deliver short-term upside.
Cyber/infra valuations stretched; watch risk.
The market is paying a huge premium for short-term certainty in cybersecurity and infrastructure software. Near-term numbers should be good and these names can accelerate, but large companies trade around 25-30x revenue, the success rate at those multiples is low, and cyber is not immune to AI disruption, so valuation risk is building.
CrowdStrike is a real AI winner.
Cybersecurity demand is being pulled forward by new AI threats, giving cyber names strong near-term earnings certainty. Within the AI complex, Keller argues CrowdStrike is one of the real AI winners because it benefits from defensive AI-driven demand and near-term certainty more than some semiconductor names.
AI software explosion lifts MongoDB database.
AI is causing a proliferation of software, and every new software application has a database underneath it. That explosion in the end market should lift database software, and MongoDB is a usage-based infrastructure play with a higher chance of near-term revenue beats than application software.
Compute flows lift Fastly usage revenue.
Content delivery/edge platforms such as Fastly are usage-based and can see quick revenue uplift as AI-driven compute and content delivery flows through to their reported numbers, giving them short-term acceleration potential.
Neocloud compute pricing may roll over.
The market may be extrapolating very short-term high compute pricing, especially in neoclouds. Elon entering the space could accelerate a compute glut, so there is an underappreciated risk that neocloud compute pricing rolls over while those names price a rosier future.
Low-multiple AI semis can outperform.
AI names trade on the same underlying hyperscaler capex and lab ARR factor but at wildly different multiples. Behind-the-meter services and hidden AI winners are priced for a rosier future, while Nvidia and Micron are not extrapolating and are signaling peak-ish conditions, so the low-multiple AI semiconductor names should do better.
Mag7 era of easy outperformance over.
The easy trade of buying mega-cap tech and hyperscalers for huge outperformance is over. These are now GDP-scale businesses facing a more competitive compute market that went from roughly three vendors to eight, nine, or ten, changing the return profile to more normal mid-teens gains rather than the prior 5-10x era.
Data center buildout fears are overstated.
Fears about data center politics, local moratoriums, power, and labor constraints are overstated. Technology moral panics tend to pass, and these data centers ultimately get built, so stocks pricing in a deceleration in data-center starts look attractive.
Left-for-dead growth stories look compelling.
Idiosyncratic growth stories such as e-commerce and some recent IPOs have been left for dead while everyone focuses on AI and software disruption. Some of those independent growth names now trade at lower multiples than when they were hot, creating compelling standalone long opportunities.
Buy Korea after margin-call liquidation.
July's pain was concentrated in Korea, with heavy retail and hedge-fund deleveraging and margin calls occurring inside a secular AI trend. Once the forced liquidation picture became clear, the setup became a buy-the-people-getting-liquidated opportunity in Korean equities, especially the large Korean tech/semiconductor complex.
Anthropic IPO likely hot; monitor setup.
Anthropic's S-1/IPO will give public AI lab metrics and pure-play exposure, reducing narrative volatility. The market seems ready to digest it and it will likely trade at a very high price with strong enthusiasm, making it an important event to monitor rather than an automatic buy.
Далее
This Monetary Matters video, published August 31, 2026, features Jeff Keller discussing SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index), WIX, IGV, CRM, Cybersecurity and infrastructure software, CRWD, MDB, FSLY, Neocloud compute providers, NBIS, CRWV, NVDA, MU, Mag 7 / mega-cap tech, DTCR, XRT, EWY, IPO. 13 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Jeff Keller · Tickers: SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index), WIX, IGV, CRM, Cybersecurity and infrastructure software, CRWD, MDB, FSLY, Neocloud compute providers, NBIS, CRWV, NVDA, MU, Mag 7 / mega-cap tech, DTCR, XRT, EWY, IPO