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US Strikes Iranian-Linked Oil Tanker, Anthropic Mega-Listing Nears | The Opening Trade 7/16/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  July 16, 2026 at 11:03  |  1:36:15  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Mark Cudmore — Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist
Sharon Bell — Goldman Sachs
Oliver Crook — Chief European Correspondent, Bloomberg
Tom Mackenzie — Anchor, Bloomberg
Chloe Mallett — Stocks Reporter, Bloomberg
Fatih Birol — Executive Director, International Energy Agency

Summary

The episode covers strong TSMC earnings and capex upgrades reinforcing the AI demand story, while US-Iran tensions and Ukraine's strikes on Russian tankers keep energy markets on edge. UK political relief lifts the pound, and strategists discuss staying long AI capex, favoring European heavy-asset stocks and banks, and avoiding autos, while noting short-term pain in Korean semis.

  • TSMC beats earnings, raises capex to $60-64B, revenue growth 40%, signaling AI demand intact.
  • US continues strikes on Iran, Hormuz traffic minimal; oil steadies near $85 but gas prices surge in Europe.
  • UK Labour reportedly picks Shabana Mahmood as chancellor, pound rallies on relief over centrist choice.
  • Mark Cudmore sees more near-term pain for KOSPI/chip stocks but stays positive on semis until hyperscalers cut capex.
  • Goldman's Sharon Bell recommends European HALO stocks (heavy assets), banks, and underweight autos.
  • European natural gas storage very low ahead of winter; prices expected to stay elevated.
  • Sterling benefits from carry trade with low volatility and high rates, especially against Swiss franc.
  • Korean regulators halt new single-stock leveraged ETFs in attempt to curb chip volatility.
Ideas
Oliver Crook Chief European Correspondent, Bloomberg 4:00
European gas prices to stay high
European natural gas prices are being driven higher by very low storage levels heading into winter, combined with persistent supply disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine war, making sustained elevated prices likely.
TTF MED
Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 38:06
KOSPI faces more near-term downside
KOSPI and global chip stocks are seeing extremely poor price action and will likely face more pain next week, as the Korean holiday and leveraged ETF restrictions create illiquid, misplaced reactions, and technicals remain weak.
EWY MED
Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 40:39
Stay long semis until capex cut
The AI semiconductor capex cycle still has room to run; hyperscalers are not cutting spending yet, and until they slash capex, the theme remains positive. The market is in a volatile stage that could last another six months, but the base case is staying long semis until a capex reduction signals the end.
SOXX MED
Sharon Bell Goldman Sachs 54:16
Buy European banks on higher rates
European banks are attractive because rates are higher and likely to stay elevated, supporting return on tangible equity, while government and corporate issuance keeps bond yields up, benefiting banking profitability.
SX7E MED
Sharon Bell Goldman Sachs 54:51
Long European HALO stocks for earnings
Heavy asset, low obsolescence (HALO) stocks—tech hardware, energy, renewables, defense, aerospace, telecom—are in the second phase of their rerating, driven by high-teens earnings growth, as heavy capital acts as a barrier against AI disruption and infrastructure spending ramps up.
European HALO stocks MED
Sharon Bell Goldman Sachs 59:44
Avoid European autos on Chinese competition
European automakers face severe Chinese competition and pricing pressure that will prevent growth, making them unattractive despite cheap valuations.
CARS MED
Scarlett Montgomery Guest 92:39
Long GBP/CHF on carry trade
The British pound is benefiting from a carry trade, funded by low-yielding currencies like the Swiss franc, because UK rates are high, FX volatility is low, and short positioning has become expensive to maintain, making GBP/CHF long attractive.
GBP/CHF MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published July 16, 2026, features Oliver Crook, Mark Cudmore, Sharon Bell, Scarlett Montgomery discussing TTF, EWY, SOXX, SX7E, European HALO stocks, CARS, GBP/CHF. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Oliver Crook, Mark Cudmore, Sharon Bell, Scarlett Montgomery  · Tickers: TTF, EWY, SOXX, SX7E, European HALO stocks, CARS, GBP/CHF