The market isn't over just because semiconductors are down

Summary

Park Se-ik and Choi Ho discuss market rotation from semiconductors to Korean consumer/cosmetics and US software as AI capex worries persist but the cycle remains intact. They highlight specific longs in cosmetics (Amorepacific, LG H&H, Cosmax, PharmaResearch), Palantir, NVIDIA, Oracle, and the broader US and Korean indices after July's sell-off.

• Korean cosmetics exports have been strong for months, yet stocks underperformed until semiconductor momentum slowed, triggering a sharp rotation.
• Palantir is singled out as the best software play due to a Rule of 40 score of 70, poised to rise as semis stall.
• NVIDIA is described as the unkillable 'Daema' of the AI infrastructure cycle; the current sell-off is froth removal, creating a buying opportunity.
• Oracle’s CDS premium spike and subsequent share correction are viewed as froth-clearing, making the stock attractive.
• The US market is expected to avoid a crash through sector rotation, while the KOSPI is set for a tactical August rebound after forced selling abates.
• Credit in the Korean market has been sharply reduced, which historically precedes a recovery rally.