Barclays' Rajadhyaksha Shifts to Neutral on Risk Assets

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  May 01, 2026 at 16:16  |  8:08  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Ajay Rajadhyaksha — Global Chairman of Research, Barclays

Summary

Barclays' Ajay Rajadhyaksha explains his shift from overweight risk assets to neutral, citing Iran oil disruption and inventory drawdowns. He warns against long-duration bonds globally due to worsening fiscal and inflation outlooks, while favoring the front end of the US yield curve and the Magnificent Six tech stocks over Tesla. He also discusses dollar dynamics and potential bond market triggers.

  • Ajay Rajadhyaksha turned neutral on risk assets after being bullish, citing oil inventory drawdowns from the Iran crisis.
  • He recommends avoiding 10-15 year government bonds in the US, UK, Japan, and France.
  • He prefers the front end of the US bond curve (2-year Treasuries) as a safe haven.
  • He favors the Magnificent Six tech stocks (ex Tesla) over Tesla on fundamental grounds.
  • He sees the next month as driven by Iran developments, with a potential equity leg higher after clarity.
  • He notes that the dollar has not strengthened despite being a energy superpower, due to increased hedging.
  • He warns that a break in 10-year yields to 4.75-5% would negatively affect equities.
  • He believes the Fed will not hike, supporting front-end Treasuries.
Trade Ideas
Ajay Rajadhyaksha Global Chairman of Research, Barclays 3:23
Avoid long-duration government bonds globally.
Fiscal profiles are worsening in the US, UK, Japan, and France, inflation will worsen, and there is no political will to address debt. This makes the 10-15 year government bond sector globally unattractive and risky to hold.
US 10-15 year government bonds UK 10-15 year government bonds Japan 10-15 year government bonds France 10-15 year government bonds HIGH
Ajay Rajadhyaksha Global Chairman of Research, Barclays 7:05
Prefer Mag 6 over Tesla.
The six largest US tech stocks (excluding Tesla) have superior forward valuations, free cash flows, and earnings power compared to Tesla, making them more attractive investments. Tesla's fundamentals lag behind the other six, so the Mag 6 are preferred while Tesla should be avoided.
Mag 6 (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta) MED
Ajay Rajadhyaksha Global Chairman of Research, Barclays 7:05
Prefer Mag 6 over Tesla.
The six largest US tech stocks (excluding Tesla) have superior forward valuations, free cash flows, and earnings power compared to Tesla, making them more attractive investments. Tesla's fundamentals lag behind the other six, so the Mag 6 are preferred while Tesla should be avoided.
TSLA MED
Ajay Rajadhyaksha Global Chairman of Research, Barclays 7:52
2-year Treasuries are reasonable.
The front end of the US bond curve (2-year Treasury) is still reasonable, and the Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike rates, making short-dated Treasuries a relatively safe place to hide in a challenging macro environment.
SHY MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published May 01, 2026, features Ajay Rajadhyaksha discussing US 10-15 year government bonds, UK 10-15 year government bonds, Japan 10-15 year government bonds, France 10-15 year government bonds, Mag 6 (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta), TSLA, SHY. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Ajay Rajadhyaksha  · Tickers: US 10-15 year government bonds, UK 10-15 year government bonds, Japan 10-15 year government bonds, France 10-15 year government bonds, Mag 6 (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta), TSLA, SHY