US Economy 'Incredibly Resilient': Mossavar-Rahmani

Summary

Goldman Sachs CIO Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani discusses the resilience of the US economy despite the Iran war, recommending clients stay invested in US equities. She dismisses gold as an effective hedge and highlights that elevated oil prices haven't yet derailed growth. The discussion also covers AI capex returns and the differing impacts on the US versus Europe and China.

• US economy remains resilient with strong earnings and low recession risk.
• Historical data shows equity markets typically rise after Middle East strikes.
• Gold is not a good inflation or deflation hedge; clients should avoid it.
• Elevated oil prices may eventually weaken the economy if sustained.
• US energy intensity has declined, reducing the impact of oil shocks.
• Hyperscalers have strong cash flows to support AI capex, but returns are uncertain for others.
• The US produces more oil than Saudi Arabia and is a major natural gas exporter.
• The war's duration is uncertain, but both sides seek an off-ramp.