Outlook is very positive for the big banks, says CFRA's Ken Leon

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 02, 2026 at 14:51  |  3:57  |  CNBC
Speakers
Ken Leon — Founder, Leon Financial LLC

Summary

Ken Leon of CFRA discusses a positive 2026 outlook for financials and big banks. He argues financials are critical for U.S. equity market breadth, expects upward earnings revisions, and sees capital markets as the key earnings delta. He also highlights potential regulatory easing that could support buybacks and dividends. The conversation touches on bank valuation and Goldman Sachs' premium to book value.

  • Ken Leon, CFRA director of equity research, joins Squawk Box to discuss 2026 bank earnings.
  • He says financials are critical for broad U.S. equity market participation.
  • He expects a very positive outlook for big banks, with upward earnings revisions.
  • He cites a steepening yield curve, loan demand, and 2-3% U.S. growth as support.
  • He identifies capital markets, M&A, equity underwriting, and IPOs as key 2026 earnings drivers.
  • He sees potential Fed regulatory easing enabling bank capital release, buybacks, and higher dividends.
  • The hosts raise whether bank stocks, including Goldman Sachs, are expensive on book value.
  • The transcript ends as Ken discusses the Trump administration's favorable stance on bank regulatory easing.
Ideas
Ken Leon Founder, Leon Financial LLC 0:51
Big banks have positive 2026 outlook.
Financials and big banks have a very positive 2026 outlook and are critical for broad U.S. equity market breadth. The six largest banks make up a large share of the sector, and he expects upward earnings revisions, a Fed cut or pause, a steepening yield curve that improves net interest margins, healthy loan demand, and 2-3% U.S. economic growth to support traditional bank earnings and share price performance.
Ken Leon Founder, Leon Financial LLC 1:39
Capital markets drive investment bank earnings.
CFRA's key call is that the delta for bank earnings is capital markets. He expects 2026 to bring strong investment fee income from M&A and equity underwriting, with IPO activity already up 30% to $146 billion in 2025, supporting capital-markets-exposed banks' earnings and share prices.
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This CNBC video, published January 02, 2026, features Ken Leon discussing XLF, KBE, Investment banks. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Ken Leon  · Tickers: XLF, KBE, Investment banks