SpaceX, OpenAI: Are Consecutive Large IPOs a Signal of a Bubble?

Summary

The video reviews 2025 global IPO, M&A, and corporate bond data, showing a strong capital-markets recovery that has lifted investment-banking fees. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are presented as likely Q4 earnings beneficiaries, while JPMorgan and Bank of America are favored because high long-term yields support bank margins. The speakers also debate whether large upcoming IPOs from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic signal a bubble, and flag Exxon Mobil's strong momentum as a developing watch item.

• Global IPO proceeds rose to $143.3bn in 2025 through November, up 21% year over year, led by North America and Asia-Pacific.
• Global M&A reached about $4.5tn in 2025, up 50% year over year, with more $10bn-plus deals than any year since 2010.
• Global investment-banking fees were about $135bn, up 9% year over year, with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs showing strong fee growth.
• The speakers expect a favorable 2026 capital-markets environment, supported by AI-cycle M&A, abundant funding, and US deregulation.
• High US 10-year yields may support net interest margins at JPMorgan and Bank of America, and financials could quietly outperform.
• Exxon Mobil is highlighted for strong price momentum and new highs, but its cyclicality and oil-price sensitivity require more study.
• The video debates whether upcoming mega-IPOs from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are a bubble signal or a relative-valuation catalyst.