Amazon Earnings -9%: Profitability Concerns Over AI Investment Outlook

아마존 실적발표 -9%...AI 투자 전망에 수익성 우려
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 06, 2026 at 01:39  |  28:25  |  Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문)
Speakers
Choi Ho — Vice President
Park Se-ik — CEO, ex-Chief Strategist

Summary

The briefing focuses on Amazon's post-earnings drop after a large 2026 capex guide and soft Q1 operating income guidance raised concerns about AI investment returns. It also reviews strong Reddit results amid an AI-software selloff, relative winners in big tech, and AI infrastructure suppliers. The hosts discuss risk-off pressure in Bitcoin and Nasdaq, delayed US labor data, and a possible rotation toward defensive stocks.

  • Amazon fell sharply after 2026 capex guidance came in well above consensus while Q1 operating income guidance missed.
  • AWS grew 23.6%, lagging Google Cloud and Microsoft Cloud, and growth is expected to decelerate.
  • Reddit's results were strong with revenue and ad growth, higher DAUs, upbeat guidance, and a buyback, but the stock remains down sharply.
  • Big tech spending without visible monetization is being punished; Google and Meta are seen as relative winners.
  • AI infrastructure suppliers with competitive edges are favored on market-related weakness.
  • Bitcoin's failure to hold support and historical drawdowns led to advice to wait before buying crypto.
  • Nasdaq downside risk remains, with VIX above 25 and a confirmed bottom seen as needed before buying.
  • Falling 10-year Treasury yields and a modest dollar rebound suggest rotation into defensive stocks rather than a full sell-everything regime.
Ideas
Choi Ho Vice President 9:03
Google and Meta best spend-and-earn big tech.
In the completed big-tech earnings season, Google and Meta stand out as the companies that are spending heavily but also earning from that spending, while most other big tech firms are spending aggressively with slower monetization. This favors selective exposure to Alphabet and Meta within big tech.
GOOGL META MED
Choi Ho Vice President 10:00
Reddit fundamentals strong despite indiscriminate selloff.
Reddit reported strong Q4 results: revenue and advertising revenue grew about 70% and 75%, adjusted EBITDA and EPS roughly doubled, daily active users rose 19%, and guidance was above consensus with a $1B buyback. The stock is down about 40% from its high because of the AI-software selloff, not because of deteriorating fundamentals, and EPS estimates are still being revised up; valuation near 28x looks attractive.
RDDT HIGH
Choi Ho Vice President 14:23
Avoid Amazon until capex shows returns.
Amazon's headline results were broadly in line, but AWS growth of 23.6% lagged Google Cloud and Microsoft Cloud, 2026 capex guidance of about $200B was far above the roughly $146B consensus, and Q1 operating income guidance of $16.5-21.5B was below the $22.2B consensus. The market is punishing big tech that spends aggressively on AI without showing near-term monetization, so Amazon is better avoided until earnings estimates can rise.
AMZN HIGH
Choi Ho Vice President 15:00
Buy competitive AI infrastructure on weakness.
Because big-tech AI capex remains aggressive, the stronger opportunity is in competitive AI infrastructure-related companies below the hyperscalers. Their shares have been sold off with the broad market even though the spending environment supports their numbers, so investors should use weakness to accumulate them rather than chasing big tech that cannot show monetization.
AI-SECTOR HIGH
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 16:13
Nvidia pricing power persists in seller's market.
AI chip makers are in a seller's market. Amazon said existing chip suppliers will not lower prices, which is why it plans to use more of its own chips, but the efficiency of Amazon's custom silicon versus Nvidia remains unproven. Until custom chips clearly deliver better cost and margins, Nvidia and incumbent chip suppliers retain pricing power.
NVDA MED
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 21:22
Nasdaq may fall further; wait for bottom.
The Nasdaq may fall another 10% this week or next week, and the market has not clearly bottomed. The speaker wants VIX above 25 and a confirmed bottom, possibly by next Wednesday, before buying; monthly MACD also poses downside risk. Near term, stay cautious on the Nasdaq and wait rather than buying the dip immediately.
^NDX HIGH
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 21:22
Nasdaq may fall further; wait for bottom.
The Nasdaq may fall another 10% this week or next week, and the market has not clearly bottomed. The speaker wants VIX above 25 and a confirmed bottom, possibly by next Wednesday, before buying; monthly MACD also poses downside risk. Near term, stay cautious on the Nasdaq and wait rather than buying the dip immediately.
^VIX HIGH
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 21:53
Avoid Bitcoin; wait until October to buy.
Bitcoin failed to hold support and is down about 50% from its high. Historical 2018 and 2022 cycles saw drawdowns of more than 70%, and the arguments that this cycle will not fall that far are unconvincing. The speaker advised waiting until around October before buying crypto rather than buying now.
BTC HIGH
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 27:29
Money rotating into defensive stocks now.
The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to around 4.19% and the dollar index is rebounding modestly, so this is not a full 'triple weak' sell-everything market. Instead, money appears to be rotating from riskier assets into less risky defensive stocks.
XLP MED
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This Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) video, published February 06, 2026, features Choi Ho, Park Se-ik discussing GOOGL, META, RDDT, AMZN, AI-SECTOR, NVDA, ^NDX, ^VIX, BTC, XLP. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Choi Ho, Park Se-ik  · Tickers: GOOGL, META, RDDT, AMZN, AI-SECTOR, NVDA, ^NDX, ^VIX, BTC, XLP