Summary
Director Park Hyunsang discusses the causes of the recent Black Thursday crash on the Korean stock market, including U.S. data center subsidy concerns, Changxin Memory IPO fears, and heavy foreign selling. He evaluates the new rules for single-stock leveraged ETFs, analyzes falling deposit levels, and explains the impact of the Bank of Korea’s 0.25% rate hike on KOSDAQ and sector rotation. He offers specific views on Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, KOSDAQ, and Korean banks, along with advice on recovery from losses.
- Sharp Thursday sell-off driven by U.S. data center subsidy concerns, Micron weakness, and Changxin Memory IPO fears affecting Korean DRAM names.
- Foreign investors continued heavy futures selling, pushing the market lower, though Samsung Electronics foreign ownership at 46.6% suggests re-entry potential.
- New single-stock leveraged ETF regulations (higher deposit limit, marketing ban, trade size limit) are viewed as too mild to curb volatility.
- Deposit money fell to around 109 trillion won, and credit balances remain elevated, concentrated in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
- Bank of Korea raised rates 0.25% to 2.75%, expected to hurt KOSDAQ growth stocks and drive a rotation into semiconductor names with solid earnings.
- Korean bank stocks have already rallied on rate hike expectations, making them risky to chase; beaten-down assets are preferred.
- ETF net buying surged to 36 trillion won, but almost all flows went to single-stock leverage and index inverse products, with no sector ETF interest.
- Recovery from large drawdowns requires strict trading principles, patience, and avoiding impulsive rotation, as recovery often takes months to a year.