Ep. 018 - Stop Saying Half of 2026 US Datacenter Capacity Is Canceled (Datacenter, Energy)

Summary

The SemiAnalysis team debunks the 'half of 2026 US data center capacity canceled' narrative, explaining the flawed denominator and highlighting massive buildout by Amazon and others. They forecast 40GW of behind-the-meter power generation by 2028, driven by gas turbines and new suppliers, while Oracle's New Mexico project faces significant delays. Key beneficiaries include Bloom Energy, and the team remains bullish on behind-the-meter despite near-term turbine overcapacity.

• Debunking the 50% cancellation myth: Amazon alone built 4GW in 2025 and plans 5GW+ in 2026; CoreWeave adds a gigawatt.
• Behind-the-meter power generation projected to reach 40GW net additions by 2028, driven by grid constraints and hyperscaler demand.
• Oracle's New Mexico project faces gas pipeline and permitting challenges, likely causing delays and serving as a cautionary example of execution risk.
• Gas turbine supply chain is diversifying with many OEMs and new entrants, including automotive engine manufacturers, increasing capacity.
• Renewables like solar and batteries face land and logistical hurdles, making gas the dominant near-term power source for data centers.
• SemiAnalysis flags Bloom Energy as a key beneficiary due to its aggressive management and rapid deployment capabilities.
• A 'peak turbine' phenomenon in 2026 may cause temporary underutilization and secondary market supply, but long-term behind-the-meter growth remains strong.