Summary
Paul Gabrail evaluates whether Palantir is the next Nvidia and whether its post-run valuation still offers an opportunity. He walks through Palantir's business, financials, valuation multiples, and competitive position, then contrasts the bull case with warnings from Michael Burry and buying by Citadel. His conclusion is that Palantir is a real business but too expensive today, with the current price already discounting exceptional Nvidia-like execution.
- Palantir has transformed from a government-heavy data platform into a faster-growing commercial AI/data business with sticky contracts and improving profitability.
- Paul argues Palantir trades at extreme multiples, roughly 119x sales and 250x free cash flow, and could fall sharply while still being expensive.
- Palantir is compared with Nvidia, but Paul says Nvidia's operating leverage and near-monopoly position are exceptional and not assured for Palantir.
- Michael Burry's reported put options against Palantir and Nvidia frame the bear case around AI enthusiasm detached from fundamentals.
- Citadel's reported purchase of Palantir shares and sale of Amazon shares is noted as a big-investor flow data point.
- Valuation scenarios show a wide range of fair values depending on revenue growth assumptions, with no margin of safety at current prices.
- Paul emphasizes price versus value discipline and waiting for lower expectations rather than chasing FOMO.
- Tesla and Microsoft are cited as examples of high price-to-sales multiples as part of the valuation discussion.