PBOC Looks to Next Stage of Policy Shift | The China Show 6/25/2026

Summary

The episode covers a rally in Asian chip stocks driven by Micron's strong outlook, with particular focus on Korean memory makers and Japan's semiconductor materials sector. PBOC introduces new overnight repo tools signaling a potential shift toward a more Fed-like framework, while several analysts turn bearish on oil and gold amid a strengthening dollar. The show also features a bullish call on luxury brands' resilience in China, a positive break-even outlook from Jinko Solar, and discussion of AI capex-driven shortages in materials and energy storage.

• Micron's blowout earnings re-ignite the AI chip trade, lifting SK Hynix, Samsung and Asian semiconductor stocks.
• PBOC to add overnight reverse repo tenor, seen as step toward making the overnight rate a main policy benchmark.
• Bank of America raises 2030 global AI capex forecast to $1.7 trillion, flagging shortages in materials like glass fiber and copper foil.
• Multiple analysts turn bearish on oil, citing a supply glut and structurally weak demand; Brent erases Iran-war gains.
• Gold and silver seen as vulnerable under a stronger dollar and fading rate-cut momentum.
• Standard Chartered's Becky Liu expects a de facto Chinese rate cut via the new repo facility, favoring bonds and continued gradual RMB appreciation.
• Bloomberg Intelligence survey shows Chinese luxury shoppers trading up to top-tier brands like Hermès and Cartier.
• Jinko Solar's global VP expects the company to break even this year, driven by Middle East and U.S. demand.