The Metric That Predicted Bitcoin’s Last Bottom Is Back w/ Julio Moreno

Summary

Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, uses on-chain data to assess Bitcoin's bear market. He explains that demand is contracting sharply and the absence of a major realized loss spike suggests the final bottom may not be in yet. However, he also highlights that Bitcoin is approaching its realized price—a historical value zone—making it an attractive accumulation area for long-term investors despite near-term downside risk.

• Bitcoin rejected at the 200-day moving average resistance and remains in a bear market, similar to prior cycle structure.
• Demand (both spot and perpetual futures) is contracting at the fastest pace since January 2022.
• ETF demand on a yearly basis has effectively flatlined for the first time since launch.
• The realized price (~$53k) is a historical cycle bottom zone; BTC is currently within about 10% of that level.
• The most recent correction produced a smaller realized loss spike than prior cycle lows, hinting that more downside is possible.
• Julio personally waits for demand to stop contracting and start growing before turning bullish.
• He outlines three accumulation styles for this environment: DCA now in the value zone, wait for an exact bottom, or wait for bull confirmation.