Volatility, when will it calm down? Key points for the big event week

Summary

The video discusses extreme volatility in Korean markets, with frequent sidecar triggers, and looks ahead to a crucial week of events. Guest So Jin-woong believes AI and semiconductor stocks have found a short-term bottom, though macro headwinds limit upside. He downplays the CXMT IPO threat to Samsung and SK hynix, expects volatility to ease after FOMC and big tech earnings, and notes the market is now more skeptical about AI capex until free cash flows and rate conditions improve.

• Korean markets continue to experience extreme intraday swings with 10 consecutive days of sidecar triggers.
• Guest argues that AI/memory stocks have likely made a short-term bottom after the June correction, and downside risk is limited.
• CXMT (Changxin Memory) IPO is not a near-term threat to Korean memory suppliers due to technology gaps and strong domestic Chinese demand.
• The upcoming FOMC decision and big tech earnings (Microsoft, Amazon, Meta) are the key events that will set the near-term market direction.
• The market is now scrutinizing big tech capex and free cash flow more critically, demanding proof that heavy spending is sustainable.
• Geopolitical risks (Red Sea disruptions, Russia-Ukraine) may add inflation pressure but are unlikely to escalate into a severe supply shock.
• Options market data show reduced index hedging and less aggressive downside bets, suggesting the market is not pricing a broad collapse.
• Korean retail investors remain heavy buyers amid foreign selling, while institutional buying power remains weak.