US, Iran Exchange Attacks, Apple's Changing of the Guard | The Pulse 8/31/2026
Спикеры
Bjoern Griesbach
— Head of Macroeconomic and Capital Market Research, Allianz Investment Management
Neil Campling
— Аналитик в сфере технологий/TMT
James Kisner
— Technology Research Analyst, Water Tower Research
Ven Ram
— Репортер/стратег Markets Live, Bloomberg
Lizzy Burden
— Крипто-репортер, Bloomberg News
Abeer Abu Omar
— Репортер, Bloomberg London
Anthony Halpin
— Bloomberg Russia Government and Economy Editor
The episode covers the hawkish Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speech at Jackson Hole and its market impact, plus the US-Iran military escalation in the Strait of Hormuz supporting oil. It includes interviews with Bjoern Griesbach on Fed and ECB rate paths, oil and German political risk, and James Kisner on NVIDIA, AI financing risks and custom-chip competition. It also covers Apple's CEO handoff and product cycle, German regional election risk, Iceland's EU referendum, UBS regulation, and Shein's IPO.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech doubles down on taming inflation, fueling rate hike bets.
- US and Iran exchange strikes, lifting oil and raising Middle East escalation concerns.
- Bjoern Griesbach says the Fed may hike if inflation does not fall, while the ECB September hike is set but longer-term European rates are too high.
- Neil Campling sees Apple's new hardware cycle, including a foldable iPhone, as a potential growth reaccelerator.
- James Kisner flags NVIDIA concentration and interconnected AI financing risks plus rising custom-chip competition.
- Apple's new CEO John Ternus faces immediate pressure on AI and fall product rollouts.
- Germany's AfD could win Saxony-Anhalt, destabilizing Chancellor Merz.
- Iceland narrowly rejects opening EU membership talks.
Идеи
Bjoern Griesbach
Head of Macroeconomic and Capital Market Research, Allianz Investment Management
2:23
Fed may hike if inflation persists.
Warsh's Jackson Hole speech signals the Fed's door is very open for another hike; with CPI at 3.4% and core at 2.5%, a significant downside surprise is needed to avoid action, and the ongoing Middle East conflict adds inflation pressure. He sees a Fed hike as the base case if inflation does not surprise lower.
Bjoern Griesbach
Head of Macroeconomic and Capital Market Research, Allianz Investment Management
3:47
Oil supported by persistent Middle East conflict.
He argues the US-Iran conflict is likely to persist, and this is visible in oil markets: spot and near futures have moved with the news while the 12-month forward oil price has stayed fairly stable, implying the market expects ongoing conflict. That means continued oil price support and ongoing inflation pressure.
Bjoern Griesbach
Head of Macroeconomic and Capital Market Research, Allianz Investment Management
5:10
ECB near-term hike, longer-term rates lower.
He says the ECB's September hike is effectively set in stone because gas prices, hawkish ECB comments, and above-potential growth have removed the economic excuse to wait. However, he thinks markets are pricing too much farther out: the 3% rate is too high and the neutral rate is around 2% over one to two years, implying longer-term European rates should be lower.
Apple product cycle can reaccelerate growth.
Apple has not grown double digits for five years, and new hardware can accelerate growth again. He expects an unusually ambitious product cycle including a likely foldable iPhone, new watch, iPhone and operating system. Under Ternus, Apple may shift back toward products, with the iPhone as the primary driver.
NVIDIA concentration creates cascading AI risk.
NVIDIA's results were impressive, but the company is at the center of an increasingly interconnected AI financing structure involving cosigning, backstops and guarantees for customer capex. If AI spending falters, this concentration could create cascading problems across the ecosystem, so AI bubble fears are not fully resolved.
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published August 31, 2026, features Bjoern Griesbach, Neil Campling, James Kisner discussing TLT, WTI, Eurozone Government Bonds, AAPL, NVDA. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Bjoern Griesbach, Neil Campling, James Kisner · Tickers: TLT, WTI, Eurozone Government Bonds, AAPL, NVDA