What are the conditions for KOSPI to reach 8,500 this year? | Hwang Seung-taek, Hana Securities Research Center Head

Summary

Hwang Seung-taek, Head of Research Center at Hana Securities, discusses his KOSPI outlook, including a base case near 7,500 and a top scenario of 8,500 if the Fed cuts once and semiconductor valuations re-rate. He remains constructive on Korean equities because earnings are strong, while flagging war, oil, inflation, rates, and FX as correction risks. He favors memory semiconductors such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix and sees AI infrastructure demand continuing, while suggesting other sectors such as power machinery, shipbuilding, defense, and chemicals/renewables for portfolio diversification.

• Hwang presents Hana Securities' KOSPI base case around 7,500 and a top scenario of 8,500.
• The 8,500 scenario requires a Fed cut and Korean semiconductor valuation premium comparable to Micron.
• He expects memory supply-demand to stay tight and semiconductor leadership to persist.
• He cites low AI adoption and higher big-tech capex as support for AI infrastructure demand.
• He names power machinery, shipbuilding, defense, and chemicals/renewables as sectors to study.
• He warns that war escalation, oil, inflation, rates, and dollar strength could cause KOSPI corrections.
• He recommends holding leading stocks while diversifying into selected sectors with improving fundamentals.