SpaceX Should Triple Revenue in Two Years, Kennedy Says

Summary

Matt Kennedy, Senior IPO Market Strategist at Renaissance Capital, argues that SpaceX's valuation is justified by a projected tripling of revenue within two years, driven by AI infrastructure deals and Starlink. While near-term multiples look expensive, the stock could appear cheap by 2029-2030 if revenue targets are met. He sees the company as a growth play with venture-like characteristics but suitable for public indexes.

• SpaceX is going public in a highly anticipated listing.
• Kennedy expects revenue to more than triple in two years due to AI deals and Starlink.
• AI side is likely to drive most revenue, with Starlink contributing strong EBITDA.
• At a valuation near $1.75 trillion, the stock could look cheap on 2029-2030 EV multiples if targets are hit.
• The investment is likened to a venture capital bet with high risk but significant return potential.
• Analysts heavily discount inflated TAM estimates in prospectuses.
• Index inclusion is debated, but Kennedy views it as an extreme growth company fit for market indexes.