Obstacles to Semiconductor Growth: What to Look For Now | Kim Hyun-soo, Hana Securities Research Center Research Fellow

Summary

Hana Securities research fellow Kim Hyun-soo makes a bullish case for the Korean battery/ESS complex, with Samsung SDI as his top pick. He argues EV battery weakness is already reflected while ESS demand from US data-center self-generation, energy security, and policy is creating a new upcycle. Panasonic is cited as a disciplined battery-capacity winner, while small/mid battery names have limited valuation upside. He also discusses European share stabilization and US election catalysts.

• Samsung SDI GM joint venture liquidation and Samsung Display stake sale support ESS expansion and make it the top pick.
• Battery sector rally is driven by EV drag clearing and ESS demand from AI data centers and energy security.
• North America ESS demand is about 70-80GW before hyperscaler self-generation, growing 20-30% per year.
• Panasonic outperformed due to minimal EV battery capex and lower fixed-cost burden.
• Korean battery makers' European share decline should slow on China export rebate phase-out and EU local procurement rules.
• KOSDAQ small/mid battery names have little or no valuation upside in a higher-rate 2028 visibility regime.
• US midterm election outcome is a positive catalyst for the battery sector but will not restore the old green wave.