Former Dallas Fed Pres. Robert Kaplan: A couple of rate hikes is appropriate

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 17, 2026 at 14:48  |  6:24  |  CNBC
Speakers
Robert Kaplan — Vice Chair, Goldman Sachs; former President, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Summary

The segment discusses the Fed's first rate hike since 2023 and the dot plot indicating another hike by year-end. Former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan says the hike was appropriate and a couple more hikes are prudent, though he cautions against overreading the dot plot or Warsh's tone. He says financial markets have largely priced in the move, while small businesses and consumers will feel more pain, and he sees AI infrastructure, AI adoption, and defense as relatively rate-insensitive. He also notes oil is a factor in sticky inflation.

  • Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023 and penciled in another hike.
  • Kaplan says the hike was right and a couple more increases are appropriate.
  • He views the prior 3.50%-3.75% rate as at best neutral and likely accommodative.
  • He warns against overreading Warsh's hawkishness or the dot plot.
  • Kaplan says markets have already priced in the Fed move; small business and consumers feel more pain.
  • AI infrastructure, AI adoption, and defense are described as not very rate-sensitive.
  • He cites the oil spike as a reason for sticky year-over-year inflation.
Ideas
Robert Kaplan Vice Chair, Goldman Sachs; former President, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 1:31
A couple more Fed rate hikes appropriate.
Kaplan says the Fed was right to raise rates and that a couple more hikes are appropriate because the prior 3.50%-3.75% setting was at best neutral and likely still accommodative. He thinks policy may need to be at current levels or slightly higher to reach neutral, and while the market should not overread the dot plot, stickier inflation could require more tightening. He also notes much of the move is already priced into front-end rates and financial markets.
Fed Funds Rate HIGH
Robert Kaplan Vice Chair, Goldman Sachs; former President, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 1:31
A couple more Fed rate hikes appropriate.
Kaplan says the Fed was right to raise rates and that a couple more hikes are appropriate because the prior 3.50%-3.75% setting was at best neutral and likely still accommodative. He thinks policy may need to be at current levels or slightly higher to reach neutral, and while the market should not overread the dot plot, stickier inflation could require more tightening. He also notes much of the move is already priced into front-end rates and financial markets.
US 2-Year Treasury Yield HIGH
Robert Kaplan Vice Chair, Goldman Sachs; former President, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2:12
AI infrastructure resilient to Fed rate hikes.
Kaplan argues the AI infrastructure build-out, AI adoption, and defense are not very interest-rate sensitive. AI infrastructure financing relies on the Treasury curve and credit spreads, which have already more than priced in the Fed's move, so higher policy rates are unlikely to derail the build-out.
AIQ MED
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This CNBC video, published September 17, 2026, features Robert Kaplan discussing Fed Funds Rate, US 2-Year Treasury Yield, AIQ. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Robert Kaplan  · Tickers: Fed Funds Rate, US 2-Year Treasury Yield, AIQ