Constellation's Ray Wang on SpaceX IPO: I'd wait for the first dip and then come in
Speakers
Ray Wang
— Analyst at SemiAnalysis. Fundamental research on AI infra/semis
Summary
Ray Wang discusses the tech market pullback ahead of major IPOs (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic), recommends waiting for a dip to buy SpaceX, and forecasts 30% upside in semiconductors driven by AI demand. He also touches on potential Tesla-SpaceX merger scenarios and the impact of index inclusion on IPOs.
- Tech sector is down recently amid rotation ahead of SpaceX IPO.
- Ray Wang advises buying SpaceX on the first dip after IPO, not at IPO price.
- He expects SpaceX IPO to be a retail-driven event with little institutional float.
- The order of AI IPOs matters; most profitable should go first to set the stage.
- Semiconductor stocks are not at peak; he predicts 30% upside in a year.
- Demand for AI chips remains strong with supply constraints in wafers and power.
- Sovereign AI initiatives will drive further demand for chips.
- A potential Tesla-SpaceX merger is speculative but could happen quickly.
Trade Ideas
Buy SpaceX on first post-IPO dip
Ray Wang advises waiting for the first dip after the SpaceX IPO to buy, rather than buying at the IPO price, as he expects the stock to pop on debut and then drop temporarily before resuming an upward trend, analogous to Facebook's IPO pattern.
Semiconductors up 30% in a year
Ray Wang expects semiconductor stocks to rise about 30% over the next year, driven by sustained AI demand, massive capex spending by hyperscalers like Google, sovereign AI initiatives, and ongoing supply constraints in wafers and power, despite potential efficiency improvements.
