Next year SK Hynix operating profit will decrease by 100 trillion? How did this calculation come about? / Will AI semiconductor oversupply concerns become a reality? | Kim Jang-yeol Center Head

Summary

Kim Jang-yeol, Head of Research Center at Unistory Asset Management, argues that oversupply fears in AI memory are overstated because HBM conversion limits general DRAM growth and long-term agreements will stabilize prices. He sees strong AI-driven demand from inference and agent architectures, and believes SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics are undervalued at around 6x forward earnings. He also notes that Samsung's foundry business could become a positive catalyst if design wins materialize.

• AI memory demand remains robust, driven by the shift to inference and AI agents, potentially multiplying usage by 20–100 times over several years.
• Oversupply concerns are exaggerated; HBM production (which eats wafer capacity) reduces general DRAM output significantly, limiting supply growth.
• Consensus operating profit for SK Hynix next year is 270–375 trillion won, but even a conservative 260 trillion won estimate yields a P/E of ~6x, a mid-cycle level.
• Long-term agreements (LTA) are expected to anchor memory prices and prevent a sharp collapse, as evidenced by Micron's reasonable terms with Tesla.
• Current stock prices offer a buying opportunity, though leveraged ETF distortions and foreign investor caution may delay re-rating.
• Samsung Electronics' foundry business shows potential positive signs with AMD and Broadcom engagements, but the outlook remains neutral pending concrete wins.
• Kim advises holding or accumulating if capital is available, emphasizing that semiconductor fundamentals are not broken.