AI Breaking Software Economics, CLARITY Bill, & Debating BitGo’s IPO | Weekly Roundup

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 23, 2026 at 08:01  |  1:18:16  |  Empire
Speakers
Santiago R. Santos — Co-Host, Empire / Founder, Inversion Capital
Rob Hadick — General Partner, Dragonfly
Jason Yanowitz — Co-Founder, Blockworks

Summary

The hosts discuss Claude and the accelerating AI productivity shift, including how it is compressing SaaS multiples and reshaping VC and enterprise software. They unpack the stalled CLARITY Bill, Coinbase's objections over stablecoin yield, and the BitGo IPO debate. The roundup also covers Polygon's payments acquisitions, Farcaster's sale and the state of decentralized social, Larry Fink's tokenization comments at WEF, and several cultural recommendations.

  • AI tools like Claude are driving major productivity gains and changing software economics.
  • Public SaaS is seeing multiple compression as AI commoditizes thin software layers.
  • The CLARITY Bill markup was delayed after Coinbase withdrew support over stablecoin yield language.
  • BitGo's IPO drew a split debate between valuation/custody commoditization bears and growth/sticky-revenue bulls.
  • Polygon acquired CoinMe and Sequence to accelerate its payments strategy, though token value accrual remains unclear.
  • Farcaster's sale and Lens's earlier deal mark another setback for decentralized social experiments.
  • Larry Fink's WEF remarks framed tokenization and stablecoins as a national-priority opportunity.
  • Content of the week includes books on bananas and the movie Sinners.
Ideas
Santiago R. Santos Co-Host, Empire / Founder, Inversion Capital 4:53
AI drives SaaS multiple compression
AI is causing massive multiple compression and rerating in public SaaS companies as the market shifts from EV/revenue to EV/gross profit, EV/EBITDA, and EV/free cash flow. He is paying close attention to this disruption because AI is changing the economics of SaaS.
SAAS HIGH
Rob Hadick General Partner, Dragonfly 24:55
Own system-of-record enterprise SaaS winners
AI will not kill all enterprise SaaS. Companies that own scarce or privileged data, own distribution, or are the system of record for a company—such as Salesforce, HubSpot, ServiceNow, and Oracle—should do well, while thin SaaS gets disrupted.
CRM HUBS NOW ORCL HIGH
Rob Hadick General Partner, Dragonfly 25:23
Thin SaaS faces AI disruption
Thin SaaS layer companies like Monday.com and Asana are vulnerable because AI hollows out middleware and translation layers. Without scarce data, distribution, or a system-of-record position, they won't do well.
MNDY ASAN HIGH
Rob Hadick General Partner, Dragonfly 25:28
Favor real-world execution over commoditized software
The durable areas for venture and investment will include real-world execution where atoms, safety, and physical costs dominate—robotics, hardware, climate, energy, and logistics—because software engineering itself is becoming commoditized.
ROBO Hardware ICLN XLE LOGISTICS MED
Jason Yanowitz Co-Founder, Blockworks 27:12
Salesforce lock-in weaker than assumed
Salesforce lacks strong lock-in despite being a system of record. It is not customized enough, requires training, and Amazon built its own CRM. Unless Salesforce changes its pricing or business model to be more customizable, its moat is weaker than assumed.
CRM MED
Rob Hadick General Partner, Dragonfly 43:18
BitGo is overvalued pure-play custody
BitGo at its ~$2B IPO trades around 6x 2026 net revenue and ~40x EBITDA. Its growth story is not BitGo-specific but depends on stablecoin and tokenization tailwinds, while it faces fee and margin compression, is third-best tech behind Anchorage and Coinbase, and pure-play custody is commoditized. The multiple should compress and relative performance should be weak.
BitGo HIGH
Santiago R. Santos Co-Host, Empire / Founder, Inversion Capital 45:49
BitGo growth justifies premium multiple
Takes the other side on BitGo: its 100% YoY assets under custody growth, 65% revenue growth, ~$250M run-rate up 85%, 70-80% sticky revenue versus Coinbase's ~40%, and ~2,500 BTC balance sheet justify a higher multiple. If Bitcoin returns to 120-125k, it is a nice play.
BitGo MED
Rob Hadick General Partner, Dragonfly 55:29
Polygon payments pivot smart; token unclear
Polygon's acquisitions of CoinMe and Sequence are a smart continuation of its year-long payments strategy, giving it regulated money movement in 48 states, fiat on/off ramps, wallet infrastructure, and flow to Polygon, with traction in India, Latin America, and Revolut remittances. However, token value accrual remains uncertain.
POL MED
Santiago R. Santos Co-Host, Empire / Founder, Inversion Capital 59:52
Figure worth watching on tokenization/HELOC wedge
Figure is riding the tokenization wave and has found a wedge in HELOCs. Management is forthcoming and focused on expanding beyond that wedge. He is paying attention but has no position.
FIGR MED
Santiago R. Santos Co-Host, Empire / Founder, Inversion Capital 66:27
Gaming category remains tough
Gaming as a category is in a tough spot. Outside a few mega-franchises like GTA and Call of Duty, most games incinerate money, similar to movies, and even Zynga's stock has been crushed.
GAMING MED
Santiago R. Santos Co-Host, Empire / Founder, Inversion Capital 69:20
Tokenization and stablecoins underappreciated
Larry Fink's WEF comments that every country should bring assets onchain and prioritize tokenization and stablecoins—and that major economies trail Brazil and India—highlight an underappreciated structural shift. People underrate the gravity of tokenization and stablecoins because of noise in meme coins.
Tokenization STABLECOINS MED
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This Empire video, published January 23, 2026, features Santiago R. Santos, Rob Hadick, Jason Yanowitz discussing SAAS, CRM, HUBS, NOW, ORCL, MNDY, ASAN, ROBO, Hardware, ICLN, XLE, LOGISTICS, BitGo, POL, FIGR, GAMING, Tokenization, STABLECOINS. 11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Santiago R. Santos, Rob Hadick, Jason Yanowitz  · Tickers: SAAS, CRM, HUBS, NOW, ORCL, MNDY, ASAN, ROBO, Hardware, ICLN, XLE, LOGISTICS, BitGo, POL, FIGR, GAMING, Tokenization, STABLECOINS