Even Apple to Chinese Memory? Samsung Electronics' Worst-Case Scenario is 'This' / Why HBM Can't Be Safe – China's Real Weapon to Overturn the Semiconductor Market | Dr. Lee Ju-wan

Summary

Industry analyst Dr. Lee Ju-wan outlines how Chinese memory makers CXMT and Yangtze Memory are taking share from Samsung and SK hynix, warns that Apple and other OEMs will adopt Chinese memory, and advises long-term investors to sell Korean memory stocks as prices head toward breakeven. He also sees a potential opportunity for Samsung's foundry to win share from TSMC in advanced nodes, and argues that HBM is not a safe haven due to low yields and eventual oversupply.

• China's CXMT and Yangtze Memory have already captured about 10% DRAM and higher NAND share, mostly from Korean firms.
• Chinese memory makers have a structural edge through massive domestic demand (55% of global semis) and aggressive price cuts.
• Apple and other OEMs are likely to use Chinese memory if US sanctions do not intensify, increasing pressure on Samsung and SK hynix.
• Dr. Lee advises long-term investors to sell Samsung and SK hynix, expecting memory price declines to push stocks significantly lower.
• HBM accounts for only 6% of memory and suffers from low yields; oversupply will erode margins, making HBM an unsafe sector.
• Samsung's foundry division has an opportunity to gain share from TSMC in sub-3nm nodes due to TSMC's supply constraints and antitrust caution, though the outcome is not yet certain.
• Traditional memory cycles persist because memory is standardized; non-memory semiconductors (foundry/logic) are less volatile due to customization.