Iran Tensions Keep Gulf Flows at Risk

Summary

Clara Gillespie of CFR discusses the highly uncertain outlook for Gulf energy flows after recent Iran tensions. She outlines a wide spectrum of recovery scenarios, the four critical tasks needed to restore shipping and production, and the multi-billion-dollar damage across the region. The conversation underscores persistent fragility and the lack of a clear near-term resolution, with implications for energy markets but no explicit trade recommendation.

• Strait of Hormuz traffic remains well below pre-conflict levels with limited attempts at crossings.
• Recovery projections range from a return to normal by year-end to no full recovery ever.
• Four tasks for reopening: clearing ships, bringing in empty tankers, restarting production, repairing damage.
• Damage to refineries, LNG plants, and ports is estimated at $60 billion.
• Qatar delayed restart of its large LNG plant after an Iranian attack on a tanker.
• US has revoked a waiver allowing Iran to sell oil, complicating diplomatic and energy outlook.
• No actionable trade call is made; the discussion centers on risk and uncertainty.