10 Years of Brexit: What's the Cost and What's Next?

Summary

Bloomberg Economics analysis says the UK’s vote to leave the EU may have already cost the economy 2–4% of GDP over ten years. Chief UK economist Dan Hanson explains how the counterfactual model works and discusses the slim prospects for a quick economic boost from closer EU ties, given political red lines and rising anti-EU sentiment.

• Brexit estimated to have reduced UK GDP by 2–4% over a decade.
• Model removes US (fiscal stimulus) and Ireland (volatile GDP) to avoid distortions.
• Closer UK-EU ties could halve the economic damage but require accepting free movement of labour.
• Labour government sees growth benefits from EU rapprochement but faces political constraints.
• Anti-EU Reform UK party leading polls ahead of 2029 election may deter EU negotiators.
• Any deep reintegration would take years to negotiate, limiting near-term economic upside.