SpaceX IPO Gigastream
Speakers
John Coogan
— Co-Host, TBPN
Gwynne Shotwell
— President and COO, SpaceX
James Murphy
— CEO, LMNT
Jordi Hays
— Co-Host, TBPN
Summary
The episode covers SpaceX's IPO day: pricing at $135, opening around $150, and trading up roughly 20-24% to about $167-172 while the hosts track predictions. It also discusses Gwynne Shotwell's SpaceX career and IPO remarks, valuation debates from the FT and Morgan Stanley, and the LMNT/Oasis lawsuit.
- SpaceX IPO priced at $135 and opened higher, with a day-one pop around 20-24%.
- Hosts view the IPO as a well-managed success, though retail allocations were small.
- Gwynne Shotwell highlights SpaceX execution, xAI compute, and nearly $1B in employee stock purchases.
- Valuation debate includes Stuart Kirk's FT column and Morningstar's lower estimate versus the IPO valuation.
- Morgan Stanley is cited for a potential path to $500B SpaceX revenue by 2030.
- LMNT CEO James Murphy sues Oasis over product ratings, alleging misinformation and brand damage.
- Other topics include a 2X SpaceX ETF, historical IPO returns, BMW's M3 EV concept, and internet memes.
Ideas
SpaceX IPO is healthy and successful.
Conventional valuation methods have repeatedly failed for Elon Musk companies: Tesla was dismissed on valuation but revenues and earnings eventually materialized. Stuart Kirk's FT column argues terrestrial valuations don't apply to Elon, and John echoes that Elon companies can stay disconnected from fundamentals longer than skeptics can stay solvent, so investors should trust the plan rather than short or avoid SpaceX solely on 95x revenue.
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