US Oil Reserve Hits 43-Year Low as Trump Tries to Limit Iran Fallout
Speakers
Bob McNally
— President and Founder, Rapidan Energy Group
Summary
Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, explains that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens by month-end, full oil flows will take months. US petroleum inventories are at multi-decade seasonal lows, while Asian demand is poised to surge as countries rebuild strategic reserves. He expects Brent crude to near a bottom and pass above $100/bbl in July-August, with risk of a larger spike if the disruption persists.
- Strait of Hormuz reopening likely by end of month, but full volume normalization will take many months.
- US gasoline, distillate, and crude inventories are at 11, 29, and 43-year seasonal lows respectively.
- Asia has been on a ‘crash diet’ since late February—pent-up demand will rebound sharply.
- China and other nations will seek to enlarge strategic petroleum reserves post-crisis.
- Brent crude could break above $100/bbl in July-August as the base case.
- If Hormuz disruption extends, oil could spike to mid-to-high $100s, causing economic damage.
Ideas
Oil prices near bottom, Brent above $100
Crude oil prices are near a bottom and will rise; US oil inventories are at multi-decade lows (gasoline 11-year seasonal low, distillate 29-year low, SPR 43-year low), Asian countries have pent-up demand after a prolonged disruption and will need to rebuild and expand strategic reserves, while supply from Hormuz will take months to return meaningfully. Brent crude could make another pass above $100/bbl in July and August as the base case.
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published June 15, 2026, features Bob McNally discussing BNO. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Bob McNally · Tickers: BNO