Venezuela Is No Template for Taiwan, Eurasia's Wang Says

Summary

Dan Wang, Eurasia Group's China Director, discusses how China is likely to respond to the US operation in Venezuela and what it means for Latin America and Taiwan. She says China will stay cautious in Latin America and deepen financial cooperation, including RMB internationalization and trade settlement with sanctioned countries. On Taiwan, she argues a military attack is unlikely and remains a last resort, but China is more likely to use economic coercion, sanctions on Taiwanese companies, and shipping restrictions. She also says China-US relations and Taiwan are not top risks for the year, with Beijing seeking a stable diplomatic environment and focusing on domestic vulnerabilities and Asian engagement.

• China is seen as unlikely to make major new investment or military commitments in Latin America, especially Venezuela.
• Venezuela is described as a sunk cost for China with limited political influence.
• China's monetary cooperation and RMB internationalization in Latin America are expected to deepen, especially for US-sanctioned countries.
• The Venezuela operation is not viewed as a template for a Chinese military move on Taiwan.
• China is expected to rely more on economic coercion, sanctions on Taiwanese companies, and shipping restrictions than military force.
• China-US relations and Taiwan are not among the speaker's top risks for the year.
• Beijing is expected to seek a stable diplomatic year while focusing on domestic vulnerabilities and relations with ASEAN, Korea, and Japan.