Summary
Lee Jihwan, CEO of Aurora Investment Advisory, assesses the sharp KOSPI correction, arguing that last week's extreme volume and panic selling likely marked a bottom. He refutes semiconductor peak fears for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, citing strong AI demand and a corrective Morgan Stanley report, and highlights a historical S&P 500 rally pattern around US midterms despite current geopolitical noise. He also points to cyclical strength in GM and advises avoiding KOSDAQ near term.
- KOSPI plunged 5% amid heavy foreign futures selling, but last week's record volume and individual panic selling are classic bottom signals.
- Lee strongly rejects the memory chip peak thesis, believing AI server demand and long-term contracts will support Samsung and SK Hynix through next year.
- Chinese DRAM competition is exaggerated: replacing Samsung's entire Apple mobile supply would cost only ~1% of Samsung's revenue.
- Morgan Stanley's own US-based report contradicted its Asian team's 'Winter Is Coming' call, labeling the move a correction to be bought.
- Midterm election history indicates S&P 500 weakness in Aug-Sep followed by a rally; the Iran conflict is delaying but not derailing this pattern.
- GM and US consumer cyclicals hitting new highs suggests markets are pricing in economic stimulus from Trump's tariff revenues.
- KOSDAQ's recent outperformance was short covering, not a leadership change; the macro setup for KOSDAQ strength is still months away.
- Investors should wait for upward trend confirmation before deploying cash, but the risk-reward on KOSPI and chip names is improving.