Outlier Capital
· Outlier Capital
· April 30, 2026 at 12:49
· ⏱ 12 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Outlier Capital argues that Hims & Hers (HIMS) is not just a GLP-1 stock but is building a scalable, personalized healthcare platform spanning diagnostics, subscriptions, international markets, and future peptides. The author is long HIMS and sees a credible path to a 10x return from its current ~$6.3B market cap, as the market continues to misprice the company.
•Hims ended 2025 with $2.35B revenue, $128M net income, $318M adjusted EBITDA, $300M operating cash flow, 2.5M+ subscribers, and $83 monthly revenue per subscriber.
•Weight loss reached a $100M run-rate in less than seven months excluding compounded GLP-1s, and management sees multiple new categories (testosterone, menopause, diagnostics) each becoming $100M+ annual revenue.
•Hims launched Labs with 130+ biomarkers; over 70% of lab customers may be eligible for treatment plans on the platform, making diagnostics a conversion engine.
•The company agreed to acquire Eucalyptus for up to $1.15B, adding 775,000+ customers and $450M+ ARR across Australia, UK, Germany, Japan, and Canada.
•FDA is reviewing peptides for possible inclusion on the 503A bulk list, and Hims already owns a California peptide facility, positioning it as a potential major commercializer of peptides.
•Amazon One Medical launched a GLP-1 management program in April 2026, directly competing with Hims in the online weight-loss space.
Author believes Hims & Hers is evolving from a GLP-1-focused telehealth company into a broader personalized healthcare platform with diagnostics, international expansion, and potential peptide catalys
Author believes Hims & Hers is evolving from a GLP-1-focused telehealth company into a broader personalized healthcare platform with diagnostics, international expansion, and potential peptide catalysts, making it undervalued relative to its platform potential.
Author notes Hims pivoted to FDA-approved branded GLP-1s through a collaboration with Novo Nordisk, bringing Wegovy and Ozempic onto its platform. This partnership gives Novo Nordisk a digital, high-v
Author notes Hims pivoted to FDA-approved branded GLP-1s through a collaboration with Novo Nordisk, bringing Wegovy and Ozempic onto its platform. This partnership gives Novo Nordisk a digital, high-volume consumer distribution channel, potentially boosting volume and adherence.
Risk: Partnership may limit Novo Nordisk's margin if Hims extracts favorable terms; also competition from Amazon One Medical could reduce incremental benefit.
Author states Amazon One Medical launched a GLP-1 management program in April 2026, directly pressuring the online weight-loss space. Amazon's entry leverages its existing healthcare infrastructure an
Author states Amazon One Medical launched a GLP-1 management program in April 2026, directly pressuring the online weight-loss space. Amazon's entry leverages its existing healthcare infrastructure and customer base, indicating Amazon is expanding its healthcare footprint.
Risk: GLP-1 market is crowded; Amazon may face regulatory and margin challenges similar to Hims. The article frames it as a threat to Hims, which could imply Amazon is gaining share.
This newsletter, published April 30, 2026,
features Outlier Capital
discussing HIMS, NVO, AMZN.
3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.