"Positioning Window" / Trend CTA, and Nasdaq VXN observations
Offsides Macro
· Offsides Macro
· May 07, 2026 at 14:34
· ⏱ 1 min read
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Summary
The newsletter discusses a potential regime shift in the author's 'Positioning Window' framework (OPI) and observes that the model is currently risk-on across equities, bonds, metals, and currencies. It also highlights elevated QQQ-VXN correlation as a warning signal for Nasdaq weakness. No personal positions or explicit actionable recommendations are provided.
•The author's OPI model is currently positioned long Nasdaq, EEM, Long Bond, short USD, long metals, and short energy/grains, leaning risk-on.
•The author sees possible beginnings of a regime shift where positioning-based strategies may stop working as well as they have in the past 12 months.
•High correlation between QQQ price and VXN (Nasdaq volatility index) has historically preceded trouble for Nasdaq, noted from a referenced source.