Noah Smith
· Noahpinion
· February 07, 2026 at 11:21
· ⏱ 17 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
=== SUMMARY ===
•The core macro thesis is that the US is governed by a dysfunctional duopoly of extremist ideologies (MAGA and Progressivism) that are both failing in practice. This will lead to persistent political instability and policy volatility as the moderate electorate "ping-pongs" between the two parties, unable to keep either in power for long.
•Specific, ideologically-driven policies at the state and local levels are creating discrete economic winners and losers. Progressive governance is linked to urban decay, crime, and fiscal strain in major cities, while MAGA governance is linked to anti-immigration policies that harm specific state economies and sectors reliant on skilled labor.
Summary
Noah Smith argues that American politics is dominated by extremist factions on both sides, driven by social media and closed primaries, but that both the MAGA right and progressive left are structurally doomed to fail in governance and coalition-building. For markets, this implies persistent policy gridlock and volatility from pendulum swings between parties, but no direct actionable trade ideas emerge from the article's pure political analysis.
•Törnberg (2025) study shows political posting on social media is dominated by partisan extremists as moderates disengage, leading to a smaller, sharper online public sphere.
•Congressional staffers, typically in their late 20s, are more online and extremist than the politicians they serve, shaping policy behind the scenes.
•MAGA's strategy of cycling through racial scapegoats (Black, Hispanic, Indian, Asian) shrinks its electoral coalition, which cannot rely on White Protestants alone for a majority.
•Portland's progressive governance has led to the second-highest crime rate in the U.S., with 40% of fires caused by vagrancy and a police force undermined by defunding.
•California's law classifying theft under $950 as a misdemeanor has contributed to copper theft waves in Los Angeles, illustrating progressive tolerance of crime undermining urban infrastructure.
•Independents now outnumber both party registrants, but their exit from primaries exacerbates extremism by leaving nomination to hardliners.
•Trump's 2024 gains among Black voters (15% vs 8% in 2020) are threatened by racist social media posts defended by the White House.
•Progressive movements are described as parasitizing liberal-built institutions (libraries, transit, parks) by overloading them with tolerance policies, leading to collapse.