Noah Smith
· Noahpinion
· July 04, 2026 at 09:31
· ⏱ 6 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Noah Smith argues that while the United States on its 250th birthday still has economic vigor and likely decades of survival ahead, deep institutional sclerosis, political polarization, and a loss of patriotic belief threaten its long-term dynamism. He broadens the thesis to suggest that humanity itself is entering a post-human age where AI and demographic decline may render nation-states less relevant, but the essay offers no specific market or investment conclusions.
•The U.S. economy remains robust with GDP on a smooth upward trend, and the AI industry is upending the world.
•Sclerosis from local veto power delays or inflates costs for factories, housing, energy, and transportation infrastructure.
•Political discourse has degenerated into movements defined by hatred rather than positive vision; rightists focus on immigration, leftists on Israel, and liberals on lowering the status of wealthy technologists.
•American patriotism has declined sharply; Americans are now less proud of their nation than Europeans, Asians, or any other major world region.
•Global fertility rates are falling below replacement everywhere, and more thinking will be done by data centers rather than human brains, signaling the end of the 'human age'.