[Abridged] Software & Payments Stocks Part II: Productivity Tools and Cybersecurity

Michael Burry · Cassandra Unchained · May 29, 2026 at 05:43 · ⏱ 1 min read  | Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Adobe is deeply undervalued at 0.91x intrinsic value after a 65% drop, with strong adoption of its new Firefly Foundry generative AI product. Meanwhile, the author maintains a bearish macro position on semiconductors and tech via rolled puts on SOXX and QQQ, signaling divergence between a single name opportunity and broad sector risk.
  • •Adobe trades at $247.60, down ~65% from its late 2021 high of $688, and at 0.91x its estimated intrinsic value of $262/share.
  • •Adobe's new product Firefly Foundry, which trains custom generative AI models on customer brand IP, saw generative credit consumption grow over 45% quarter-over-quarter.
  • •Owners' earnings are estimated at ~$7.7 billion on revenue of ~$26.7 billion for the current year.
  • •The author rolled his existing put positions on SOXX and QQQ at a debit, increasing capital at risk — reinforcing a bearish stance on semiconductors and broad tech.
Read time 1 min
Length 871 chars
Category finance
Trade Ideas
Michael Burry Founder, Scion Asset Management; subject of The Big Short
Author increased bearish bet on semiconductors by rolling puts on the SOXX ETF, adding capital at risk.
SOXX HIGH
Michael Burry Founder, Scion Asset Management; subject of The Big Short
Author increased bearish bet on large-cap tech by rolling puts on the QQQ ETF, adding capital at risk.
QQQ HIGH
Michael Burry Founder, Scion Asset Management; subject of The Big Short
Author highlights Adobe's 65% price decline, below-intrinsic valuation at 0.91x IV15, and strong 45% QoQ growth in Firefly Foundry generative credit usage — suggesting potential upside if the product
Author highlights Adobe's 65% price decline, below-intrinsic valuation at 0.91x IV15, and strong 45% QoQ growth in Firefly Foundry generative credit usage — suggesting potential upside if the product momentum and valuation re-rate. Risk: Continued macro headwinds for high-growth software stocks; Firefly monetization may take longer than expected.
ADBE
More from Cassandra Unchained
Short Thoughts May 25, 2026
May 26, 01:17
[Abridged] The Heretic’s Guide to AI’s Stars Part III: Tracepalooza & the Bezzle
May 23, 00:25
The Heretic’s Guide to AI’s Stars Part III: Tracepalooza & the Bezzle
May 22, 19:13
Trading Post May 18, 2026
May 18, 19:59
National Brain Tumor Society - May 2026
May 17, 19:59

This newsletter, published May 29, 2026, features Michael Burry discussing SOXX, QQQ, ADBE. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Michael Burry  · Tickers: SOXX, QQQ, ADBE