AI Datacenter Power Investment Map: From 765kV to 0.65V

Damnang · Damnang’s Substack · May 06, 2026 at 17:36 · ⏱ 15 min read  | Read on Substack ↗
Summary
AI datacenter power demand is doubling by 2030, but investing requires disaggregating the 10-layer conversion chain (765kV to 0.65V) because each layer has different competitive dynamics, margins, and growth profiles. The article maps 24 companies and highlights four architectural transitions (48V direct-to-load, GaN, 800V DC, on-site generation) that will reshape winner/loser patterns across the chain.
  • Global datacenter power demand projected to grow from 59GW (2023) to >122GW by 2030.
  • High-voltage tier (765kV→13.8kV) has 20-30 year asset life and 2-7 year lead times, making it the slowest bottleneck.
  • Eaton's Q1 2026 datacenter revenue up 50% YoY but earnings growth only +2%, indicating margin pressure from capacity expansion.
  • Bloom Energy's Q1 2026 revenue $751M (+130% YoY), total backlog ~$20B, with Oracle Jupiter project up to 2.45GW bypassing grid queues.
  • Vicor's Q1 2026 backlog $300.6M (+70% QoQ) using proprietary FPA/VPD technology for sub-1V GPU power delivery.
  • Navitas unveiled an 800V-to-6V board at GTC 2026 aligned with NVIDIA's 800V DC architecture; 2025 revenue $46M, AI pipeline $165M.
  • Amphenol's IT Datacom segment revenue $8.3B (+128% YoY) with 32.7% operating margin in Communications Solutions.
  • Signs that NVIDIA is diversifying power component sourcing for its next-generation GPU platform, creating risk for incumbent VRM suppliers.
Read time 15 min
Length 15,549 chars
Category finance
Trade Ideas
Damnang Substack author, Damnang’s Substack
Author states Navitas 'unveiled an 800V-to-6V board aligned with NVIDIA’s 800V DC direction at GTC 2026' and notes GaN is likely to replace Si MOSFETs in server VRMs as GPU power increases. Navitas is
Author states Navitas 'unveiled an 800V-to-6V board aligned with NVIDIA’s 800V DC direction at GTC 2026' and notes GaN is likely to replace Si MOSFETs in server VRMs as GPU power increases. Navitas is the purest GaN play with an AI pipeline of $165M against $46M revenue. Risk: GaN adoption may be slower than expected; competition from Infineon (GaN Systems) and advanced Si-based designs; still low revenue base.
Damnang Substack author, Damnang’s Substack
While MPS is described as the 'most prominent GPU VRM supplier' with design wins on H100/B200 and 2025 revenue +26.4%, the author also notes 'signs that NVIDIA is diversifying power component sourcing
While MPS is described as the 'most prominent GPU VRM supplier' with design wins on H100/B200 and 2025 revenue +26.4%, the author also notes 'signs that NVIDIA is diversifying power component sourcing for its next-generation GPU platform.' This creates binary risk for MPS's dominant position if it loses share in B300/GB300. Risk: Diversification by NVIDIA could reduce MPS content per GPU; competition from Vicor's VPD, Infineon, and Navitas; high valuation multiples pricing in continued dominance.
Damnang Substack author, Damnang’s Substack
Author reports Amphenol's IT Datacom segment revenue $8.3B (+128% YoY) with 32.7% operating margins, noting that connectors/cables 'have leverage on the entire chain’s growth' as GPU power and server
Author reports Amphenol's IT Datacom segment revenue $8.3B (+128% YoY) with 32.7% operating margins, noting that connectors/cables 'have leverage on the entire chain’s growth' as GPU power and server density scale. This indicates strong demand pull across all voltage tiers. Risk: Cyclicality in capex cycles; integration risks from acquisitions; potential for connector commoditization at high volumes.
Damnang Substack author, Damnang’s Substack
Author notes Eaton's Q1 2026 revenue up 17% YoY and datacenter revenue up 50%, but earnings growth lagged at +2%, explicitly attributing it to 'capacity expansion costs pressuring margins.' This margi
Author notes Eaton's Q1 2026 revenue up 17% YoY and datacenter revenue up 50%, but earnings growth lagged at +2%, explicitly attributing it to 'capacity expansion costs pressuring margins.' This margin compression trend may weigh on valuation if it persists. Risk: Continued investment spending could keep margins below expectations; competitive pressure from ABB and Schneider in medium-voltage.
Damnang Substack author, Damnang’s Substack
Author details Vicor's proprietary FPA/VPD technology for vertical power delivery directly beneath the GPU, noting Q1 2026 backlog up 70% QoQ to $300.6M. This positions Vicor uniquely for the 'last 1c
Author details Vicor's proprietary FPA/VPD technology for vertical power delivery directly beneath the GPU, noting Q1 2026 backlog up 70% QoQ to $300.6M. This positions Vicor uniquely for the 'last 1cm' conversion as GPU TDP rises to 1,400W requiring more current (2,000A). Risk: NVIDIA's diversification of power sourcing could reduce Vicor's share in next-gen platforms; customer concentration and technology transition risk.
Damnang Substack author, Damnang’s Substack
Author highlights Bloom's 130% YoY revenue growth, $20B backlog, and its role as a 'head-on bypass of grid interconnection queues' through on-site SOFC generation. The Oracle Jupiter (2.45GW) and Broo
Author highlights Bloom's 130% YoY revenue growth, $20B backlog, and its role as a 'head-on bypass of grid interconnection queues' through on-site SOFC generation. The Oracle Jupiter (2.45GW) and Brookfield ($5B) partnerships demonstrate accelerating adoption of this thesis. Risk: Execution risk on massive backlog conversion; dependency on few large customers; technology competition from other on-site generation methods.
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