Chamath Palihapitiya
· Chamath Palihapitiya
· April 05, 2026 at 16:57
· ⏱ 5 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
AI-related trade (semiconductors, servers, data-center hardware) grew 40% in 2025, accounting for roughly 30% of global trade growth, even as US-China bilateral trade fell 30% and was partly replaced by ASEAN and India. Separately, pharma M&A accelerated in late March with several billion-dollar deals (Biogen-Apellis, Lilly-Centessa, Novartis-Excellergy), driven by patent cliffs and IRA drug pricing changes. Whoop raised $575M at a $10.1B valuation, reporting 103% bookings growth and a $1.1B run rate, with a clear signal that its next round will be an IPO.
•AI-related trade (semiconductors, servers, networking, data-center hardware) grew ~40% in 2025 vs. 6.5% global average, contributing ~30% of total trade growth.
•US-China bilateral trade fell ~30% in 2025, eliminating ~$130B of Chinese exports to the US; the US replaced ~2/3 of that via other countries, with ASEAN exports jumping ~14%.
•China shifted from consumer-goods to intermediate-goods exports, making supply-chain dependence harder to unwind.
•Europe saw imports from China increase by over $60B; Germany imported more cars from China than it exported for the first time, and China-assembled EVs made up ~15% of EU EV sales.
•Pharma dealmaking surged: Biogen agreed to buy Apellis for $5.6B, Eli Lilly agreed to buy Centessa for up to $7.8B, Lilly also partnered with Insilico Medicine for up to $2.75B, and Novartis agreed to acquire Excellergy for up to $2B.
•Whoop raised $575M at a $10.1B valuation (triple its 2021 valuation), with 2.5M members, 103% bookings growth, and a $1.1B run rate; CEO stated this is the last private round before an IPO.