I Am Going To Lay Out My Trading And Investing Framework
Capital Flows
· Capital Flows
· July 10, 2026 at 02:50
· ⏱ 3 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The article argues that all global macro starts with interest rates as the price of money, and conviction must be built from evidence and coherence across time horizons. For markets, the author uses cross-asset confirmation (CADJPY flush, ZN floor) to maintain a bullish path for equities toward all-time highs, despite liquidity concerns, with upcoming CPI and FOMC as key catalysts.
•Interest rates are the price of money that the entire economy and market turn on; understanding SOFR curve pricing sets the stage for capital allocation.
•Conviction is moderated by evidence and coherence, not by equal weighting of bullish and bearish reasons.
•Volatility is a function of time; the edge comes from having a different time horizon or risk tolerance than the market.
•Cross-asset confirmation is used to frame every trade; example: CADJPY flush on oil's double top confirmed getting longer equities.
•Z6 contract's floor into the July FOMC set the bottom in ZN, which set the intraday bottom in ES, keeping the path toward an all-time high.
•CME Group launches single stock futures on July 27, which will change hedging flows and allow overnight risk transfer on names like Oracle.