Bob Elliott
· Nonconsensus
· August 04, 2026 at 10:46
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Physical crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz have been reduced to a trickle since early March, with some barrels rerouted via Saudi Red Sea and UAE pipeline routes and other volumes deliberately obscured—so reported inventory data likely understate the true supply disruption. The market implication is that oil balances are more uncertain than headline stock changes suggest, making inventory prints a less reliable signal for crude direction.
•Since early March, crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz have been constrained to a trickle.
•Saudi Arabia has rerouted some barrels to the Red Sea.
•The UAE has rerouted some barrels through its pipeline.
•The article references barrels being 'hidden' in some way, but the provided full text cuts off before detailing that mechanism.