Stocks Little Changed as Yields Climb on Strong Jobs Data | Closing Bell
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 11, 2026 at 23:29 UTC  |  10:41  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Katie Crutchfield — Anchor
Scarlet Fu — Anchor
Carol Massar — Anchor/Guest
Tim Stenovec — Anchor/Guest

Summary

  • Markets finished flat (S&P 500) to slightly down (Nasdaq/Dow), with Small Caps underperforming (-0.4%) as Fed rate cuts get pushed further out.
  • A distinct "AI Scare" trade is emerging, specifically targeting Real Estate Services stocks (JLL, CBRE, Cushman & Wakefield) on fears that AI will disrupt office/service needs.
  • McDonald's (MCD) is proving the "trade-down" thesis, beating comps (5.7%) as consumers seek value, while discretionary names like Mattel (MAT) plunge (-25%) on weak demand.
  • AI Infrastructure remains the dominant bullish theme, extending beyond chips (Micron) into power generation (Generac) as data centers demand massive energy.
Trade Ideas
Ticker Direction Speaker Thesis Time
SHORT Carol Massar
Anchor, Bloomberg
"Real estate services stocks dropping sharply as investors assess the sector's vulnerability to the newest crop of AI applications... that could disrupt many industries." This is the "AI Scare" trade. The market is inferring that AI agents and automation will drastically reduce the headcount needed for professional services and the physical office footprint required to house them. These legacy intermediaries are viewed as the "losers" in an efficiency-driven economy. SHORT. Sentiment has shifted from "Return to Office" hopes to "AI Obsolescence" fears. AI adoption may be slower than priced in; these firms may successfully pivot to consulting on AI integration for physical spaces. 0:47
MU
LONG Tim Stenovec
Editor-at-Large, Axios
Stock up ~10%. CFO Mark Murphy confirmed they are producing new High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) chips in "high volumes" and delivering to customers. HBM is the critical bottleneck for Nvidia's GPUs. High-volume production confirms Micron has solved yield issues and is now directly capitalizing on the AI capex spend. They are no longer just a commodity memory cycle play; they are an AI infrastructure essential. LONG. Cyclical downturn in legacy memory chips (PCs/Smartphones) offsetting AI gains. 6:23
LONG Carol Massar
Anchor, Bloomberg
Ed Yardeni calls the current market environment a "scramble for immunity," noting Gold is recouping losses and back in an upward trajectory. As "AI scare" trades hit specific sectors and rates stay high, capital is rotating into non-correlated, hard assets for safety. Gold is acting as the hedge against both tech volatility and geopolitical risk. LONG. A sharply strengthening US Dollar or rising real yields. 1:45
MCD
LONG Scarlet Fu
Senior Advisor, Wilshire
Q4 comp sales +5.7% (beating 3.76% est). CEO states "value leadership is working" and they are "gaining market share as consumers change their spending habits." In a high-inflation/high-rate environment, the consumer doesn't stop eating out completely; they trade down. McDonald's is capturing the flight from fast-casual/sit-down dining. The beat confirms they are the primary beneficiary of consumer austerity. LONG. A defensive fortress in a weakening consumer tape. Continued margin pressure if input costs rise faster than menu price hikes. 3:11
MAT
AVOID Scarlet Fu
Senior Advisor, Wilshire
Stock down 25% (biggest plunge since 1999). Holiday results missed estimates; issued a weak 2026 forecast for lower profit. This is the inverse of the McDonald's trade. Discretionary spending on physical goods (toys) is evaporating. The massive miss indicates a loss of pricing power and a consumer that is tapped out on non-essentials. AVOID. This is a "falling knife" with fundamental demand destruction. Potential acquisition target at depressed valuations. 8:28
LONG Tim Stenovec
Editor-at-Large, Axios
Raised full-year revenue guidance to $61.2B-$61.7B. Boosted dividend by 2%. Raising guidance in a mixed macro environment signals that enterprise IT spending is stabilizing. The dividend hike signals strong cash flow confidence. It is a low-beta way to play the tech hardware upgrade cycle. LONG. Slowdown in enterprise campus networking spend. 5:01
WATCH Scarlet Fu
Senior Advisor, Wilshire
Shares down 8.8% on lower profit due to crypto decline. However, CEO Vlad Tenev claims they are at the "beginning of a prediction market supercycle." The stock is trading on current crypto volumes (weak), but the management thesis is pivoting to "Prediction Markets" (betting on outcomes). If they can regulatory capture this space, it decouples them from pure crypto beta. WATCH. Wait for the crypto-related selling to stabilize to see if the "Prediction Market" narrative gains traction with users. Regulatory crackdowns on prediction markets (gambling laws). 9:01
LONG Tim Stenovec
Editor-at-Large, Axios
Stock up 18%. CEO confirmed they entered the "AI world" in Q4 with large megawatt generators. KeyBanc predicts upside based on "positive data center developments." AI Data Centers have a massive, unmet power need. The grid is unreliable. Generac is pivoting from just "residential backup" to "critical AI infrastructure power." This re-rates the stock from a cyclical industrial to an AI-derivative play. LONG. The "Power for AI" trade is the second leg of the semiconductor boom. Regulatory hurdles for diesel/gas generators; competition from industrial power incumbents (CAT). 5:07