Trump Privately Weighs Quitting USMCA Trade Pact He Signed

Speakers

Kailey Leinz — Bloomberg Reporter

Scarlett Fu — Bloomberg Anchor

Paul Sweeney — Bloomberg Anchor

Summary

President Trump is privately considering withdrawing from the USMCA (NAFTA 2.0), a trade deal he signed in his first term, calling it "irrelevant" during a recent Ford plant visit.
Tensions with Canada are escalating significantly; Trump has threatened 100% tariffs on Canada (due to their China pact) and 50% tariffs on Canadian aircraft.
Israeli PM Netanyahu is in Washington to present new military intelligence on Iran, seeking to shift US-Iran negotiations to include ballistic missiles and proxy support, not just nuclear issues.
The administration is using aggressive posturing (threats of blocking critical bridges/tariffs) to bolster its position ahead of a review of $2 trillion in trade.

Trade Ideas

Ticker	Direction	Speaker	Thesis	Time
EWC /FXC	SHORT	Kailey Leinz Bloomberg Reporter	Trump is "privately mulling potentially exiting the USMCA" and has recently threatened "100% tariffs over Canada's pact with China" and "50% tariffs targeted at Canadian aircraft." The Canadian economy is existentially dependent on access to the US market. Even the threat of USMCA dissolution or 100% tariffs creates a massive risk premium for Canadian equities (EWC) and the Canadian Dollar (short via FXC). SHORT Canada. The uncertainty regarding the $2 trillion trade relationship is a direct headwind for the TSX and CAD. Trump's threats could be purely negotiating leverage ("posturing") that resolves quickly, causing a relief rally.	—
GM /F	SHORT	Kailey Leinz Bloomberg Reporter	Trump visited a Ford Motor plant and called the USMCA agreement "irrelevant." Legacy US automakers have deeply integrated cross-border supply chains with Canada and Mexico. If USMCA is scrapped or borders are thickened by tariffs/blockades, production costs for Ford and GM will spike, and logistics will become chaotic. SHORT / AVOID. The auto sector cannot efficiently operate without the certainty of the trilateral trade agreement. Trump may offer specific subsidies or exemptions to US-domiciled manufacturers that offset tariff pain.	3:09
ITA /XLE	LONG	Kailey Leinz Bloomberg Reporter	Netanyahu is introducing "new military intelligence regarding Iran's military capabilities" and pushing to expand negotiations to include "ballistic missile program" and "proxy militia groups." While initial talks were "positive," Israel's introduction of new intelligence suggests a hawkish pivot or an attempt to derail a soft deal. Increased tension in the Middle East typically bids up Defense stocks (ITA) and adds a geopolitical risk premium to Oil (XLE). LONG. Hedge against the failure of US-Iran bilateral talks. A surprise diplomatic breakthrough that eases sanctions on Iran would be bearish for oil prices.	—