Ideas
Semiconductors lead; stay with leadership.
Semiconductors are the clear market leadership group: in April they rose 25.9% and year-to-date they are up 34%, far outpacing the S&P 500's 4% year-to-date gain. Investors outside semiconductors in the U.S. are struggling, so the speaker favors the semiconductor leadership theme.
Buy lagging US tech and software.
Although the index is at record highs, many large-cap technology and software names are still below their highs. The speaker cites a research note saying investors should buy these laggards and look for them to catch up to new highs.
Dollar remains in a weak trend.
Despite war-related concerns, the U.S. Dollar Index has not broken higher. The speaker sees the dollar in a weak trend rather than the old regime where dollar strength pulled global capital into U.S. assets.
Yen strength; USD/JPY toward 150.
The Bank of Japan wants to raise rates and strengthen the yen, so the speaker does not expect USD/JPY to rise much further and sees it likely settling around the 150 level.
USD/KRW to stabilize near 1,400.
The speaker expects the won's depreciation trend to stabilize and USD/KRW to fall back toward the 1,400 area once war-related risk resolves, rather than continuing to weaken toward 1,500.
Korean dual-fuel ship engines lead China.
Korean ship engine makers have a clear technology lead in eco-friendly dual-fuel engines, while Chinese shipyards lack sufficient dual-fuel engine capacity. This is driving orders to Korean engine suppliers, pushing utilization above 100%, and creating relative strength in LNG/engine-linked shipbuilders and ship equipment suppliers.
Samsung SDI gains Amazon data-center battery talks.
Samsung SDI met with Amazon's battery head for its service network to discuss data center batteries. Amazon is building very large AI data centers and needs stable and backup power, so the data-center battery/ESS angle is a positive company-specific catalyst for Samsung SDI.
AI data centers need power infrastructure.
AI data center construction is being constrained by power infrastructure, so operators are focusing on power stability and backup power. The speaker says this benefits transformers, transmission and distribution equipment, solar power, and secondary batteries/ESS, and expects the theme to persist through the year.
CPO supplier SMEs are a tradable theme.
Co-packaged optics and next-generation semiconductor substrates are being developed to reduce heat and power use in AI chips. The speaker does not expect Samsung Electro-Mechanics or LG Innotek to rise solely because of this, but he sees the small-cap rear supply chain companies working with them as a tradable theme.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics leads AI substrate race.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics has been the real winner in the AI substrate and advanced packaging race, rising from around 150,000 won to near 700,000 won. The speaker notes it keeps rising even as investors ask when to sell, supporting a positive momentum view.
DRAM shortage persists through 2027.
A Counterpoint report argues the semiconductor supply crisis will last until 2027. By late 2027, DRAM supply may meet less than 60% of demand because the industry needs 12% annual capacity growth but is only expanding 7.5%. Capacity is also shifting to HBM and leading-edge chips, cutting consumer PC and notebook memory production and pushing prices higher.
KOSPI remains undervalued; target 8,000.
Goldman Sachs raised its KOSPI target to 8,000 from 7,000, arguing 2025 operating profit forecasts are being revised up from +130% to +220%, non-semiconductor earnings are growing around 48%, and broad industrial fundamentals are improving. Even after a 30% forecast cut and an 11x multiple the index would be around 6,250. The KOSPI's 12-month forward P/E is only about 7.5x versus a 10x historical average, global funds remain underweight Korea, governance reform and record buybacks are underway, and 70% of KOSPI companies still trade below 1x PBR. The speaker also cites 635 trillion won of standby investor cash and 408 trillion won of domestic ETF net assets as supportive liquidity. He sees 6,000-7,000 as fair rather than expensive.
National Growth Fund attractive for tax benefits.
The National Growth Fund offers government coverage of up to 20% of principal losses, income tax deductions up to 18 million won for a 70 million won income, and will be managed by Mirae, Samsung, and KB asset management. The main drawback is a five-year lockup, but the speaker views it as attractive for investors with spare funds due to the tax benefit and loss protection.
This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published April 20, 2026,
features Park Byeong-chang
discussing SMH, US large-cap tech laggards, IGV, DXY, USD/JPY, USD/KRW, Korean ship engine/equipment suppliers, 006400.KS, AI-SECTOR, Korean CPO/advanced substrate SME suppliers, 009150.KS, DRAM, EWY, National Growth Fund.
13 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Park Byeong-chang
· Tickers:
SMH,
US large-cap tech laggards,
IGV,
DXY,
USD/JPY,
USD/KRW,
Korean ship engine/equipment suppliers,
006400.KS,
AI-SECTOR,
Korean CPO/advanced substrate SME suppliers,
009150.KS,
DRAM,
EWY,
National Growth Fund
