Is Bitcoin In A Bear Market?

Summary

Anthony Pompliano argues that bitcoin is likely in a bear market, but one that looks different from past cycles because volatility has fallen, Wall Street financialization has deepened, and markets are forward-looking and now pricing deflation rather than inflation. He expects BTC to remain flat to down near term and sees a drop to $30k-$40k as unlikely without an exogenous shock or forced selling, while remaining long-term bullish and encouraging accumulation. He also explains gold's rise as central-bank de-fiat buying, notes industrial/supply-driven metal demand, and flags bitcoin treasury-company debt as a stress point to watch.

• Bitcoin fell from about $126,000 to $75,000, a 40% drawdown.
• Pompliano believes this is a bear market, but expects a smaller drawdown than prior 80% cycles.
• Financialization, ETFs, options, and covered-call products are tempering Bitcoin volatility.
• Markets may be pricing deflation rather than inflation, weakening the store-of-value bid.
• Gold is rising on central-bank de-fiat buying rather than inflation fears.
• Silver, copper, and platinum are cited for industrial demand and supply constraints.
• Bitcoin treasury-company debt is a potential forced-selling risk to monitor.
• Long-term Bitcoin holders are encouraged to accumulate drawdowns and save in BTC.