Will the decline continue anyway? | "Semiconductor good news is just a painkiller" | Lee Ju-wan Industry Analyst [Double Up]

Summary

Industry analyst Lee Ju-wan, a former SK hynix expert, argues that the memory semiconductor sector is overvalued and set for further declines. He explains that the recent stock rally was driven by price hikes rather than volume growth, the supply shortage is artificial and will soon reverse as Korean fabs raise utilization and China's massive equipment purchases come online. He urges investors to avoid memory stocks and use any temporary rebounds to exit positions.

• Memory stocks (Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, Micron) surged on price hikes, not volume growth.
• Unlike Nvidia and TSMC, memory companies lack volume growth, making current valuations unsustainable.
• The memory cycle is supply-driven; Korean firms have artificially cut production and can quickly restore output.
• China has imported enormous semiconductor equipment and is ramping up memory production.
• Memory spot prices are already showing weakness, and fixed contract prices have flattened.
• Long-term agreements will not prevent price and margin erosion once supply exceeds demand.
• Any stock rebounds should be used as exit opportunities, not for new buying.