US Steel Costs Impacted by War, Trade Deals
Speakers
Sam McKinney
— Vice President and Equity Research Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets
Summary
Sam McKinney of KeyBanc discusses the US steel industry, highlighting an extended pricing upcycle, supply constraints, and the impact of tariffs and diesel costs. He expects further upside in steel prices, with a peak in late summer, while data center demand remains a small factor.
- Steel pricing upcycle is unusually long at nearly 9 months.
- Suppliers are limiting contract tons and spot steel is nearly unavailable.
- Tariffs have reduced steel imports by 25% year-to-date.
- Diesel prices have risen 50% since the Iran war, increasing transport costs.
- Data center demand represents only about 1.5% of US steel demand.
- Peak steel pricing expected in August or September.
- Hot rolled coil prices could reach $1,500 per ton.
Trade Ideas
Steel pricing upcycle has further upside.
Steel pricing upcycle has been extended to nearly 9 months (vs typical 3-4 months), driven by supply discipline (mills limiting contract tons, spot unavailable), tariffs reducing imports, and diesel surcharges. Prices are near $1,100 and have further room to run, with peak expected in August/September. Hot rolled coil could reach $1,500.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published May 27, 2026, features Sam McKinney discussing Hot Rolled Coil Steel. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Sam McKinney · Tickers: Hot Rolled Coil Steel