What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, September 14, 2026

{"summary": "Author argues SPX has a negatively skewed setup this week with defined upside/downside levels and charm/delta decay flows driving direction after Wednesday's FOMC.", "reason": "The author provides a specific directional thesis for SPX based on technical positioning (skew, point of control, charm flows) and upcoming catalysts (FOMC, bond auction).", "ideas": [{"symbol": "SPX", "direction": "short", "thesis": "Author argues the left tail is fatter and longer this week, with only ~50pts of upside versus ~150pts of downside, giving a negative skew to SPX positioning. The stated mechanism is that staying below the 7650 point of control into Wednesday triggers massive charm flows and delta decay, with 7625 as the first accelerator and Thursday 7575 as the max accelerator. Catalysts cited are ADP and the 20y bond auction Tuesday and FOMC Wednesday, with OPEX Friday; the author's view is above 7650 targets 7700 into opex, below 7650 targets 7500. Main risk implied is that holding above the point of control invalidates the bearish path.", "thesis_short": "SPX negative skew, below 7650 targets 7500", "quote": "Not only is the left tail fatter this week, its also longer. Higher probability of a down week and a larger downside range than upside. 50pts of upside compared to 150 pts of downside", "confidence": 0.8, "sentiment": -0.6, "timeframe": "this week into Friday OPEX"}], "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite", "failure_count": 0, "verified": true, "extraction_model": "deepseek-flash"}