After 1yr of constantly researching finance/markets, this is where I landed. 12.5% CAGR backtest linked. Each position explained.

{"summary": "Commenter critiques a leveraged ETF portfolio backtest, arguing KMLM is an inaccurate proxy for managed futures funds, CTAP underwent significant changes that caused them to exit, mechanical rebalancing and capital gains tax matter, and they prefer RSSX over GDE. They also warn RSSB will diversify but likely drag near-term returns.", "reason": "Accepted: substantive, reasoned critiques and preferences on specific ETFs (CTAP, RSSX, GDE, RSSB) with identifiable rationale.", "ideas": [{"symbol": "CTAP", "direction": "avoid", "thesis": "The author says CTAP underwent significant changes that led them to exit the ETF entirely, implying the fund's altered methodology or holdings no longer fit their managed-futures allocation. The mechanism is that structural changes to the fund's strategy can degrade its diversification or return profile versus the historical proxy used in backtests. No specific catalyst or timeframe is given beyond the change already occurring. Main risk stated is relying on inaccurate backtest proxies like KMLM.", "thesis_short": "Exited CTAP after significant fund changes", "quote": "Do you know the changes that CTAP underwent? If not then Google or ChatGPT it. There are significant changes that had me exit the ETF entirely.", "confidence": 0.7, "sentiment": -0.5, "timeframe": "unspecified"}, {"symbol": "RSSX", "direction": "long", "thesis": "The author states they personally chose RSSX over GDE, indicating a preference for RSSX as the better vehicle for their portfolio's diversifying exposure. The mechanism is that RSSX presumably offers a more suitable risk/return or structure than GDE for stacking diversifiers alongside equities. No explicit catalyst or timeframe is provided. Main risk is not stated beyond the general caution about backtest-driven assumptions.", "thesis_short": "Prefers RSSX over GDE for diversifier sleeve", "quote": "I also personally took RSSX over GDE. Something for you to think about.", "confidence": 0.6, "sentiment": 0.4, "timeframe": "unspecified"}, {"symbol": "RSSB", "direction": "watch", "thesis": "The author acknowledges RSSB will diversify a portfolio but warns it will likely drag on returns in the near term, given that bonds have performed poorly recently. The mechanism is that treasury futures exposure adds diversification and improves Sharpe/drawdowns over long horizons but underperforms when rates/bonds are weak. No specific catalyst or timeframe beyond 'near term'. Main risk stated is near-term return drag from bond exposure.", "thesis_short": "RSSB diversifies but likely drags near-term returns", "quote": "RSSB is going to diversify you, but also likely drag on your returns in the near term.", "confidence": 0.7, "sentiment": -0.2, "timeframe": "near term"}], "model": "deepseek-v4-flash"}