Bitcoin’s 50% Collapse Exposes Two Industry Myths by Larry Swedroe

u/Portfoliana · Reddit — r/Bogleheads · February 11, 2026 at 09:31  | View on Reddit ↗
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Author contends Bitcoin lacks fundamental value and its price depends purely on speculative demand, unlike stocks with calculable business worth.

BTC-USD — AVOID Author argues Bitcoin's closest thing to fundamental value is mining production cost, and when price drops below that, supply contracts until speculative demand meets production cost. This floor is not based on cash flows or earnings, so any recovery depends on other speculators deciding it's cheap enough to buy again. That makes Bitcoin more like poker than investing, unlike stocks where underlying business worth can be calculated.

With BTC you're just guessing when other speculators will decide it's cheap enough to buy again. That's not investing, that's poker with extra steps.

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u/Portfoliana Reddit r/Bogleheads
Bitcoin lacks fundamental value; price depends on speculative demand.
Author argues Bitcoin's closest thing to fundamental value is mining production cost, and when price drops below that, supply contracts until speculative demand meets production cost. This floor is not based on cash flows or earnings, so any recovery depends on other speculators deciding it's cheap enough to buy again. That makes Bitcoin more like poker than investing, unlike stocks where underlying business worth can be calculated.
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This Reddit post, published February 11, 2026, features u/Portfoliana discussing BTC. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: u/Portfoliana  · Tickers: BTC