2025 BND Returns--and future implications

u/Sagelllini · Reddit — r/Bogleheads · January 07, 2026 at 04:44 · ⬆ 1 pts  | View on Reddit ↗
AI Summary

Original Reddit comment

The author advocates a stock-heavy portfolio over bonds, citing long-term outperformance of VTI over BND.

VTI — LONG The author argues that long-term investors should hold stocks like VTI rather than bonds. Historical data shows VTI far outperformed BND, and a 100% stock portfolio withdrawing 4% since 2016 ended about $900K ahead of a bond-heavy allocation. The rationale is that equities provide higher long-term returns, making 10 years of expenses in bonds or cash excessively conservative.

the constant investor does FAR better in a stock like VTI than BND.

BND — AVOID The author argues against holding bond funds like BND, citing their low returns. BND's inception-to-date return since 2007 is only 3.12%, and since 2016 an investor holding cash would have done better than one holding bonds. Thus bonds are unattractive for retirement portfolios.

the investor who held CASH would have done better than the investor who held bonds.

Score 1
Full Post Text
Ideas
u/Sagelllini Reddit r/Bogleheads
Stocks beat bonds long-term; favor VTI.
The author argues that long-term investors should hold stocks like VTI rather than bonds. Historical data shows VTI far outperformed BND, and a 100% stock portfolio withdrawing 4% since 2016 ended about $900K ahead of a bond-heavy allocation. The rationale is that equities provide higher long-term returns, making 10 years of expenses in bonds or cash excessively conservative.
u/Sagelllini Reddit r/Bogleheads
Avoid BND; low returns and cash outperformed.
The author argues against holding bond funds like BND, citing their low returns. BND's inception-to-date return since 2007 is only 3.12%, and since 2016 an investor holding cash would have done better than one holding bonds. Thus bonds are unattractive for retirement portfolios.
More from Reddit — r/Bogleheads

This Reddit post, published January 07, 2026, features u/Sagelllini discussing VTI, BND. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: u/Sagelllini  · Tickers: VTI, BND