Oil - Maduro - USA

That’s a fair question, and I’d say it’s a bit of both, but with an important distinction. I’m not arguing that US energy companies won’t benefit at all. In fact, I agree that XOM and CVX can drift higher on the narrative that US majors gain optionality and geopolitical leverage, especially relative to smaller or more politically exposed producers. Holding XOM here makes sense from a quality and balance-sheet perspective. Where I think the market is overstating things is in the idea that this translates into a rapid, material earnings or production uplift tied specifically to Venezuela. Sitting on the world’s largest reserves is very different from economically extracting them, especially when infrastructure, governance, and security issues dominate. That optionality is long-dated and highly conditional. My main point is about time horizon and risk pricing. In the short to medium term, instability tends to tighten supply and raise the geopolitical premium, which is supportive for energy prices but also increases volatility across risk assets. In that environment, energy equities can do fine, but I still see value in complementing them with defensive exposure, particularly gold, as a hedge against escalation rather than a bet against oil or US majors. So it’s not an “either/or” call. Energy equities like XOM can work, but I’m skeptical of the idea that Venezuela meaningfully changes their fundamentals anytime soon. The clearer and more immediate trade, in my view, is higher risk premia rather than a sudden surge in accessible supply.