No clear trade idea was identified in this comment.
Discussion: The Entire AI Buildout (Google, NVDA, MSFT) Is dependent on this $700m Monopoly - $15 -> $150 PT.
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Yep you're right. China controls 78% of the InP market and the entire world is dependent on those materials for semiconductors.
AXT is the licensed exporter to western markets and they're the only company in the world fully vertically integrated at scale and they own everything from the mines, refineries, (eg. Dowa, the #1 western provider with only \~12% control) and substrate production (duopoly, AXT is one, Sumitomo is the other but $30B MC) which are bottlenecks on bottlenecks.
This random ass $700m company is the bottleneck and bottleneck of the bottleneck of the entire AI supply chain. But if China nukes this company, they also nuke the Western AI buildout -> huge trade war.
Broadcom would not be able to produce enough. Google would not be able to produce enough and everything stalls.